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Tuesday, February 28, 2006

Another possible new orphanage

It's hard for me to get excited about this anymore, but we may have another possible new orphanage. It's for "Fuiang Welfare Institute in Anhui Province". I can't find that city, and I ran it across other possible spellings - there is a Fuyang and a Fujian City, not sure whether there are orphanages in those cities at this point. If someone else has time to run this down please let me know what you find. Otherwise it will be tomorrow evening before I have time to really research it correctly.

Packages Found?

This sounds like good news:

DHL Sucks Again

Apparently CCAA says they sent the missing referrals, and DHL says they did not pick them up. I have one person telling me she is with CCAI and was told hers did not arrive, and another telling me CCAI was not effected. So, not sure about that. I've sent an email to the original person to doublecheck on things. I'm thinking it's time for the CCAA to switch to a different carrier.

Monday, February 27, 2006

Another month of lost referrals

I hope this doesn't become a habit... lost referrals at multiple agencies. Here is one person's experience So far I can say pretty assuredly that CCAI and GWCA have been effected. Rumors are flying that HFS and AHH were also effected. GWCA was expecting 90 and received 26. Not sure on exact numbers for the other agencies. How do you forget to stick 64 referral packets in the box? Update: HFS apparently not effected, but CHI is now rumored to have been. Several months ago there was the problem with DHL and it took three or four days before the problem was resolved. Last month there were a handful of families that were 'skipped', and they have been told they will get their referral with this batch. What a nightmare.

Review Room, August 25th

Someone with an August 25th LID had CCAA call for some clarification on something. Last Monday. A week ago. The CCAA site still doesn't show that they are done with July. But we kind of know that they were up to the very end of July about two weeks ago. Do we dare hope that they reviewed almost all of August in about a week?

Sunday, February 26, 2006

CCAA Website Change

The CCAA website changed sometime Saturday night or early Sunday morning here... meaning that someone at the CCAA is working on Sunday. It also means that the May 25th cut off is now officially official. Does this mean that July really isn't out of the review room? Or does it just mean that a different person is supposed to be changing the review room portion and hasn't done it yet. Several agencies have reported that August is currently being reviewed, so I'm a bit confused as to why the website isn't showing this yet.

Saturday, February 25, 2006

Hunan baby trafficking

I've had several people email me about the Hunan issues, wanting to know what I might know about it. For a little more info, see these links: NPR Research China BBC The NPR story has one gross inaccuracy (the cost), which of course puts the rest of the story as questionable. But, assuming the rest is true, then that would seem to agree with Brian Stuy's reporting of the story. The BBC version of the story is quite different. I'm not sure we'll ever know the real story. As a parent, I'd feel better that the children were possibly given for money instead of being kidnapped and then sold with the kidnappers profiting. My reasoning is that if there are parents who are missing their very much wanted child then that is heartbreaking... but if the parents willingly gave the child up then that's completely different. But, then I think about how my daughter might view it as she gets older. Being abandoned vs being sold vs being kidnapped from parents who very much wanted and loved you. That's a whole different issue. Thankfully my daughter is not from any of the named orphanages.

Friday, February 24, 2006

Trying to put a positive spin on it

It's not easy. Really, it's not. Here's the best I can do. One of the larger agencies is reporting that they are expecting 90 referrals in this next batch. They received 45 in December and 44 in January. So, if these numbers have similar ratios throughout the other agencies, then they managed to do twice as many dossiers this time... even though it doesn't seem like it when you look at the dates. If we could expect the numbers to go back into the 40's then we may have reason to think we can see whole months after this. We don't know what this particular agencies numbers look like for June or July or August or September, though. So the following months may be as big as May, or they may go back to being what they were. Another person reports that their agency has:
54 LIDs for May 20, by far the highest they've ever had according to their list. After that it's like 11-20 per period.
We don't know what a "period" is, so this is also kind of sketchy, but at this point I'll take anything I can get.

It seems to be pretty official

It seems to be pretty official..... from what I'm seeing from multiple agencies it looks like this referral batch will not get past the end of May, and may not make it to the end of May. Let's recap: March 31st LID's got their referral starting November 10th. If (and that's a big if at this point) they manage to get through May, and if they arrive on Tuesday February 28th, then it will have taken them 110 days (3.6 months) to do 2 months worth of lids. UPDATE: May 31st have been told they will not be included this time. May 25th have been told they will. So the cutoff is likely to fall somewhere between those two dates. At that rate, September will get their referrals in another 8 months. Early September in another seven months. On top of what has already been waited through. Those of you who are easily offended should stop reading now. That sucks big fat hairy donkey dicks.

More not so nice rumors

CCAA's website has not changed as of almost 7 am this morning. Being that it's now 7 pm on Friday in China, I don't see it changing until next week at this point. CCAI has notified their people that they hope the next batch covers the rest of May. Someone with an unknown agency, with a May 27th LID, has been told not to expect their referral in this batch. There are still some "part of June" rumors swirling around, but I'm not seeing any of them being tied to a specific agency. Unfortunately, the not-so-good rumors are being tied to specific agencies.

Thursday, February 23, 2006

It's almost the end of the week.

Spain felt like they would know something about the cut off date by the weekend. This is Thursday night. I'm hoping that when I wake up in the morning there will be news. Even better would be an update to the CCAA site... but I'm not getting my hopes up.

Thanks for all of the emails!

I love the comments and emails, keep them coming. I don't have time to respond to everyone right now, so to answer a few questions: 1. Where do I look for rumors.
A little bit of everywhere. There are a half dozen boards I look through, and I've lost track of how many Yahoo Groups. Luckily I am a fast reader and can skim through things pretty quickly.
2. When do I think (fill in the blank) month will get their referrals.
If I knew that I'd be on TV as some famous psychic. All of the analyzing I've done tells me that September will most likely get their referral between June and November. Which doesn't really help. Once we know for sure what this next batch will look like I'll try to narrow it down a bit more. I want to be able to pinpoint as much as anyone else... but the CCAA just seems to want to make sure they are unpredictable.
3. Where am I in the process.
We have a September LID.
I have a feeling I'll be posting plenty of rumors (and facts, hopefully) over the next week... but once we get into the rumor "downtime", what would ya'll like for me to blog about? 1. Packing Tips 2. The first week home 3. Travelling tips with a baby 4. Referral Day research, after the call 5. Any other ideas ya'll might have Please keep the emails coming with rumors you hear about (or post a comment, most seem to be sending emails.. either is fine with me). Many times I post and then check email and find a half dozen of you have seen something at the same time I did... so we're all on the ball together! But, sometimes I'm away from the computer and having those emails gives me a good starting place in my travels from boards to groups to sites.

Nothing New

I'm still seeing conflicting rumors. Some say May 25, some say May 26, some say the rest of May, some say June 2, some say almost halfway into June, some say a good ways into June, some say half of June. The last couple of months the worst rumors have been the accurate ones. Let's hope that changes.

Wednesday, February 22, 2006

Bad news

From the AHH site:
Although we do not know the exact cut-off dates for the next batch of referrals, it looks like next month's referrals could cover Dossiers logged in through May 26, 2005 or possibly through the end of May.
I'm guessing they feel pretty confident about those dates since they put them up on their web site.

NPR and Orgies

This post has nothing to do with the CCAA, referrals, rumors, or review rooms. We'll go back to our regularly scheduled programming as soon as I see something I haven't already reported on. Am I the only person who thinks the NPR people are TRYING to sound like they are saying "visit us, at NPR dot orgie". They don't say "dot org" like they should. The web suffixes are said like a word, not spelled out. Dot Com. Dot Net. Dot Org. The org is said like organ without the second syllable. PBS has figured this out, as they say about a million times a morning "visit us, at PBSKids dot org". But NPR hasn't figured this out. So, they say "In Pee Are dot Oh Are Gee", but they say that Oh Are Gee all together so it's "orgie". Please tell me I'm not the only one who hears it this way.

Tuesday, February 21, 2006

Latest Spain Rumor

This is supposed to have come from BLAS, to Spain, and then to their people:
"Now, the CCAA is reviewing August files, June files are already in the Matching Room waiting for referals, and July files are already reviewed, they are waiting to go into the Matching Room"
So, another confirmation that August is into the review room. It doesn't really tell us much about June. We already knew they are in the matching room and have been for a bit. No way to know if any of them will be referred this time. I'm scouring every corner of the web I know of that may have information on a cut-off date. Nothing yet. If anyone finds something out before I do then please either email me or leave a comment.

Review Room rumor good, referral rumors not so good

One agency has apparently reported to their clients that August is now in the review room. The CCAA site still shows they have completed June. Maybe they just haven't updated it. Most referral rumors are now saying they will only complete through the end of May. That would be bad. Very bad. Good for the rest of May, but horrible for the rest of us.


Spain is saying they expect referrals next week. From the translation, I *think* they are saying they are sure that all of May will be included, but aren't sure how much (if any) of June will be included. They also seem to feel that they will know something more about the cut off sometime this week.

Conflicting Rumors

Spain is still saying they expect referrals through early June. Another agency has told their clients to only expect referrals through May 30th. It's possible the other agency doesn't have any more LID's for a while after May 30, so they may not be conflicting. I believe we will see referrals next Thursday or Friday (or maybe the following Monday). So, somewhere between the 2nd and 6th. Possibly even the 7th, now that I think about it. This means that we might start hearing something more definite as early as this Friday or Monday.

Friday, February 17, 2006

A more specific rumor

Someone with a June 3rd LID was told by their agency to expect their referral on February 28th. This falls in line with the other rumors we are seeing, but gives a more definate date as to when they might arrive.

Thursday, February 16, 2006

Travel Approvals

Rumor has it that Travel Approvals from the last batch of referrals are on their way. Sometimes referrals come shortly after travel approvals, but I don't really think that applies this month. My guess is that we are probably close to two weeks away from seeing the next batch of referrals.

Tuesday, February 14, 2006

Review room answer

Someone else, with a 7/26 LID, has been asked for more info. And, someone's agency answered their question that dossiers are reviewed in the order they are received. This would seem to point to them being very close to finishing up with July in the review room. June was in the review room when the CCAA started listing the status on November 29th, and did not come out until January 10th. That's 42 days. July went in on the 10th and now, on February 14th, they appear to be almost done. They've been in 35 days so far (minus 7 for CNY), so things would appear to be on a slightly faster track with July. Unless June was in there long before the CCAA started listing the information. In which case July could be going much faster.

CCAA Move - finally, a definitive answer!!!!

Also from Jane Liedtke
If you want the answer to that CCAA move question, today is your lucky day. Ross and I had lunch with the Director of CCAA today! So I asked him myself - are they moving? Yes. Where? About two blocks from our office! Chaoyang District off of Gonti Beilu and the 2nd Ring Road behind the Asia Hotel or behind the Fu Hua Mansion Office Building. When? April. Will there be delays? It depends on how fast they get the phone lines and computer network completed. I think I now know all there may be public to know about the situation given the staff we asked by phone didn't know. Hope this helps - got the word from the top - I suppose it's a matter of timing - when referrals get out before the move and after the move. I also know from living in China and moving into office buildings in various places - things never happen when you expect them to.

Monday, February 13, 2006

The Moving Rumor

Jane Liedtke of had her CCAA person call them and ask if they are moving. The answer is:
Staff at CCAA say "yes" they are moving. Where and when "they do not know". So, when I hear more I'll let you know - no need to email further about where/when, will there be a delay, etc. I just will not have the answer to this even if I wanted to help you ease your mind, I am sorry I can't. When they let us know, we'll pass it on right away. Thanks for your patience and understanding. We all understand how the waiting process is.
Does this mean they will be moving in the future, but have been working this week? It kind of sounds like it to me.

Review Room

We know June is out of the review room so July must be in there, so this isn't huge. But, someone with a 7/27 LID date has been contacted for more info. If they do LID dates chronologically then this is good news. If they do it by agency then maybe not so much.

Sunday, February 12, 2006

A good rumor

The French board is apparently posting that the Spanish board is saying that the next batch will go out at the end of February and will cover LID's through mid-June. If true, then that will be a whole months worth of LID's. And that would be very exciting. Of course, this is a rumor that has gone through several boards to make it to the ones I happen to be on... but still, I'll take it.

Friday, February 10, 2006

Finally, some more rumors

One rumor says that someone's agency liason was at CCAA yesterday and the CCAA was busy packing boxes to move. Another rumor says that this next batch is going to make it well into June. Somehow, those rumors don't seem to mesh well together to me. I mean, it seems that one has to be true and one has to be false, because if they are busy packing boxes then I doubt they know how far they are going to be able to match this time... right? Oh, and then there are the multiple agencies preparing their clients that the wait will likely extend out to 12 to 13 months. I really like the rumor that says that they will make it a good ways into June. I think I'll hold onto that one for a bit. But, I think they are probably moving.

Thursday, February 02, 2006

A Chart

Ralph Stirling posted his latest statistics to APC. I noticed something near the bottom that I've never noticed before. A listing of how many people have reported their referrals. I know this is not a scientific sampling, but in the old "is the slowdown really because there are so many more dossiers" question, this might shed some light on it. So, I made a graph of his numbers. You can click on the image for a larger image to see what dates are involved. What this tells me is that the July 2004 group was HUGE. They got their referrals on January 6, 2005. They waited 6 months. The ones at the end of July only waited 5 months. Most of the months since July had about half as many. March 2005 is showing about 75% of what the huge July 2004 group was, and yet it took 2 months to do March, and they did that huge July group all at once. April is showing at less than half of the huge July group, but it's possible that many of the new referrals haven't posted their information yet, so I'll wait until the next statistics are run to see how that looks. Still, this would seem to disprove the claim that referrals are taking so long because there are so many more dossiers.