My Crystal Ball
I get a couple of emails a day of people saying "Our LID is X and I really need to know when we will travel because of Z and I'm just wondering when you think we will travel".
And I never know how to respond to that. The comment that my Crystal Ball isn't working very well right now seems a bit smart assed, but it's the shortest easiest way I can think of that I can say "I'm not psychic and I just really don't know".
I'm sorry I don't know. But, I don't.
If we didn't have our very nice person with some information I would be convinced we are in for an 18 month wait. However, this person's belief that the CCAA does not intend to go over 12 months makes me think that we have hope for a 12 month wait. I admit that in the back of my mind I'm wondering how they are going to do it. I can see how they could maybe keep it below 14 months, but 12 months just seems like a big hurdle. That's not to say that they won't manage it, just saying it seems like a really big hurdle at this point.
I've stated before that I will have some opinions based on how far they get with this batch. This is because for the first time we have good detailed numbers ahead of time.
I had decided in this post that if they do two weeks this next time that the under 12 months thing may be do-able. And then I did an update that said it still might be possible even if they do a little less, because they may soon have a lot more paperwork for babies coming in.
And in this post I made the following statements based on numbers from the polls.
- If they do May 31st alone at the end of this month then I will assume that it is going to take four months to get through June.
- If they do through the 2nd then I will assume it will take three and a half months to get through June.
- If they do through the 7th then I will assume it will take two and a half months to get through June.
- If they do through the 10th then I will assume that it will take two months to get through June.
- If they do through the 15th then I will assume they will get through July 11th on the next batch.
posted by RumorQueen at 4/15/2006 08:04:00 AM
3 Comments:
You can see the results of all of our polls linked from here
http://snipurl.com/p8i8
My guesstimations are based on those polls.
I do hope they get through June in 2 batches. Well, I hope they get through it in one, but that's not very realistic, I don't think. Though I'd love for the CCAA to prove me wrong.
I can't believe your crystal ball isn't working RQ! Did it get broken in the storm? lol (I really am glad that you and your family are alright. We live north of Atlanta and got hit with some bad storms, but we just missed the tornados.)
With our LID May 31, I know we will be included. I just hope that they get into June a good ways. We might try and go back for #3 and I don't want to have to wait what would seem like an eternity again.
We are waiting LID July, for our 3rd daughter from China. If there is anything I've seen over and over, it is that you really can not predict when you will travel (or when you will recieve your referral!) We've seen travel held up by SARS, Chinese Holidays, Trade Fair, and airline tickets being unavailable (truly this can happen!) We personally did not experience all of these, but some of them. I would guess it is those adopting for the 1st time from China who want you to predict travel dates.
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