Scenarios

I think I've figured out the annoying pop-up ad. I think it's from Bravenet, so once we are done with this poll I won't use them again. I'm sure someone is offering a free poll without popups. Or I hope so, anyway. But, the above picture is where the poll is for now. Before I start scenarios lets look at where we are now. May 26 - 30 was mailed on March 24th. Late May to Late March - that's 10 months. There are rumors that we're looking at referrals before the end of the month since the last one was so small. But, I'm just going to assume they will send some out before they break for the May Holiday - maybe it will come in two batches, maybe one... but I'm going to figure it as coming at the end of April. And, because I'm working on a best case scenario, I'm going to assume they do about two weeks and make it through the 10th. That will put the wait at 11 months for those with a June 1st LID. And then I'm going to assume they can do 3 weeks the next month, and based on our poll this three weeks is about the same size as the previous two weeks, so they should be able to easily do this if they managed two weeks the time before. This would take us to July 1st and would be mailed the first week of June (they have a holiday in May, so referrals may come five weeks after the last batch). Those with a June 11th referral will have waited almost one year. If they can manage that, then that puts us onto the next poll. As you can see - it looks like July and August are smaller... and then September is a lot smaller. If they can then go back to whole months, they'll stay at one year. I can be even more positive and say that unless they have plans for how to handle the large months of October and November, they may even need to do a little catch up work during July, August, and September so they can fall behind a little again during October and November. When the next referrals come out, we should be able to look at the June LID poll and get a very good idea of how the following referrals are going to look. So, if they can do two weeks in this next batch, then it is very likely that the "not beyond 12 months" thing is right. If they can't, then we'll look at what they managed and see where that might take us. We finally have detailed poll numbers ahead of time, so for the first time we can actually do that... this next batch. Added later: It is possible that they don't get through two weeks this time and still manage to keep it under 12 months. Remember, they may start doing more per month in the coming months as the Hunan situation dies down. My scenario counts on them doing about the same amount of dossiers every month, and it is highly possible they'll start doing more per month in the coming months as the orphanages complete their internal audits and start sending more paperwork again.