Some thoughts
First - August is now officially out of the review room. Yeah, I know - some of you aren't impressed... but congrats to the August people who can breathe just a little bit easier now.
Second, yes, there are ads up there. I asked a geek friend last week what I'd need in order to have a better way to handle comments, a better way to track who's coming and how, and a better way to do several other things. Turns out it's going to take between 15 and 20 dollars a month. So, we'll see how much the ads bring in and see if we can come up with a better forum for us to talk.
As for the "our facilitator told us if we are going to adopt again to do it quickly as it may end soon"... I gotta tell you that those rumors have surfaced on and off for years. Yes, eventually it will probably be true, but I just don't think we can listen to those rumors too much right now.
I have also been reminded again of the Swedish report that those with a March 2006 DTC should expect a wait of from 14 to 18 months. If this is true, then I don't think any of us should count on the CCAA speeding up.
I'm not going to touch the "first world second world" thing.
And next, a little history lesson. Back in 2001 the wait was extending (nothing near this wait just yet, they always managed to do way more than 3 bsns days last time) and rumors started surfacing that a quota was going to be instituted. We had the rumors for about two months and then the word came down officially that November 2001 would be the last "non-quota" month. November was huge, and then December and subsequent months were teeny. All this really did was move the wait - you had to wait before you could submit your dossier, and agencies had waiting lists. Anyway, by the time those end of November people got their referrals the wait was something like 14 months. Then the CCAA started doubling up on months (they could do this, because the months were teensy), and the wait started coming back down. Then there was SARS, and it went back up, and then when SARS was over it went back down (rapidly).
This time we are not seeing rumors of a quota, and the wait is even longer now than it was back then (when the quota was put in place). We are seeing some rumors that they are going to tighten down on requirements though, so maybe that's what they are going to do this time to slow things down? I honestly don't know... it's just that this time is worse than it was in 2001, and in 2001 they did something about it, and as of now, I'm not seeing that they are going to do anything about it.
That means that either they know they can fix this without a quota, or they are working on something we just don't know about yet.
Added later: To get an idea of what the wait has been in the past in relation to what it is doing now, you can go here.
posted by RumorQueen at 3/24/2006 06:44:00 AM
70 Comments:
rumor queen do you know when the referrals are being mailed out?
For what it is worth, the director of our agency went to China last november and met with the CCAA, one comment she made when she came back was that she thought the CCAA would be extending the wait as a way to limit the number of applications without actually imposing a quota.
I don't know when they are being mailed out.
And, to the 8:19 anon, that's a possibility as well.
In 2001, 2002 - that was the time the wait jumped from 8 to 14 months...but then, right around Sept/oct 2002 they started referring full months again (after a long time of 1/2 months).
In 2004, they speeded up the wait by doing 1 1/2 months and sometimes 2 months...and I rmember something odd happening in the summer when referrals for one group came out and TWO weeks later another batch came out!
anything is possible. it willbe interesting to see what happens after the may/june groups get referrals...
Can anyone tell me where exactly they saw that May 30th was the cit off date? Is it possible to have the link please.
I am just so sad at this moment knowing this could be true as we are LID May 31. I know next month we will be in the batch but today I really don't feel emotionaly strong and I need support so that is why I came here.
Gen
In a way, i just wish they would impose the damn quota. With month after month of just inching ahead with no end in sight, It'd be nice to see someone doing SOMETHING to avoid the 18 month wait that appears to be coming. My apologies to those who are not yet DTC, but i am starting to feel that a quota would be preferable to this painful dribbling out of referrals. And if indeed the ccaa is slowing things down on purpose to decrease applications, well, that is just annoying.
It is important to remember what that Swedish organization is saying. They are saying it will be an 18 month wait from DTC until the children are back in Sweden. That isn't an 18 month wait from LID. It would be more like a 15 month wait from LID. It doesn't help much, but it's something.
I'm new in this rumour-game, and curious. What stands DTC for?
The 14-18 month wait suggested by Sweden would actually indicate CCAA IS going to speed up significantly, right? If they continue to take 3 months to get through one month, the wait for March 06 LIDs will be 2-3 years! I think they are either going to speed up pretty soon or we will hear some type of announcement from CCAA about a possible 2-year wait and we will see people jumping ship--which would then reduce the wait.
To Gen (above): I don't think the May 30 cut-off is publicly posted anywhere yet. Agencies are letting clients know via phone and e-mail. Our LID is 5/31 and we received an e-mail directly from our referral counselor at our agency (GWCA, which NEVER speculates) stating they had been notified by CCAA that 5/30 is the cut-off across the board. They have never given us wrong information so far so I believe them...unfortunately.
WHY does the CCAA have a problem with the "31st" days. If it's true 5/31, review up to but not inc 7/31 and again this month 8/31. Is 31 a bad luck # in China?
...3 months between dtc and lid? yikes. is that somehow the norm w/ sweden?
9:36
I think they are including 1 month DTC to LID and 2 months from referral to travel (thus 3 extra months than if you are counting LID to referral)
Based on previous messages anyway.
Pam
If May was such a huge month....does that mean the same thing will happen when Oct. rolls around as well, since it is suppose to be huge too? 4 long dragged out months?????
Nov LID
Anon 9:47, June was pretty big too. I don't think things are gonna speed up any time soon.
I'm calling my agency later. I doubt they'll be able to tell me much, since last time I told THEM when referrals were coming out, but I'll post here if they say anything. Not like it means much at this point!
Does anyone know if there is any truth to the rumors about new 'health' restrictions such as no surgeries and other [what we would consider] treatable conditions such as diabetes will be imposed and these parents rejected for adoption in China?
7:13 AM... I read a post yesterday afternoon on APC that their agency said referrals are already in the mail. The poster did not mention what agency she was with.
I have a July LID. My agency told me last fall that China intended increase the length of time between LID and referral until it was 10-12 months and then leave it there for the foreseeable future. I wonder if that's what we're seeing now.
Here's my burning question of the day. It would appear no U.S. agencies received referrals in March. I'm not sure about some of the smaller agencies, but the biggies reported yesterday they had no LIDs from the 26th to the 30th.
This begs the question, were any actually sent?
10:37 Excellent question. Anyone?
There are at least a couple of U.S. families on the May boards with LID of 5/30 but I don't know their agency.
There are two families in our agency with May 26th LID. Ours is May 31st.
I am one the unfortunate May 31 LID's. Do you think there is any truth to the rumor that the CCAA had over 400 dossiers logged in on that day and that is why we didn't make the cut?
FYI, I spoke with my agency yesterday. They could not confirm the cut off date.
In my avid blog reading, i have come across ONE person with a 5/27 LID. I get the feeling that this is a very small batch of referrals.
What that means in the scheme of things, i do not know. It is curious though.
11:06 here again. My small agency has only 2 or 3 families with a 5/31 LID. No other May LID's.
This is from my agency - one of the larger ones. It made me feel better, so I thought I would share:
The slow-down is a result of a sharp increase in adoptive families around the world choosing to adopt from China, and the fact that CCAA does not have enough files for children in need of families (enough
referrals) in their matching department to match with approved families.
This has shifted the waiting time from what was 7 months last year to 10 months currently, and it could possibly go longer. Over the years, this very waiting time has varied from 6 months to 16 months; the gradual lengthening in waiting time over the past several months does not indicate that China will close its program. The CCAA has not issued any news in this regard and our agency has no reason to believe it will any time in the near future.
Adopting through China continues to be one of the most reliable and smooth processes for families who choose an international program, even though this stretch of waiting has lengthened.
On my May '05 DTC site, I counted 20 families with LID of May 26th-30th, and 20 with a LID of May 31st, out of 119 families included. The rest were early May or the first week of June.
I don't know if this means May 31st really was a huge number?
Bwahahahahaha! Reliable and predictable! Funny stuff.
I'll be 10 months in about 20 days and I'm pretty sure my Referral will not be in the April batch.
And there's that "paper ready" thing again. If it's this bad now, why would we think it would get any better next month? Or the month after that? No new orphanages are being brought on that I know of.
Wish I had as good news for the many families in the China queue, but the slow down persists, in fact it is even worse this month. Contrary to rumours, which optimistically predicted more matching this month, CCAA is in fact matching less than one week’s files, with the cut off date predicted to be only May 30th. Yet again this means no referrals for us, which is hard to take. Unfortunately there is no negotiation on this, no matter how good the relationship with CCAA, believe me we have tried.
On the up side we have been given no indication of a shut down, the other rumour now circulating. The delays do appear to be related to the fallout from the recent scandal in Hunan province. Investigations are ongoing and it seems this is contributing to the slow down.
Families currently in China start their journeys home today.
This is the weekly update that we received from our agency this a.m.
I wonder if the small number of referrals in this batch has anything to do with the unexpected batch of expidieted files that were processed a few weeks ago? We (small Canadian agency) generall have 5 - 7 families a month and last month we had 5 files expidieted ... totally unexpected for us! Did other agencies also have expidieted files?
11:22 is interesting
Negotiation?? what is there to negotiate??
anon 11:39, may i ask: what do you mean by expedited files? do you mean families whose referrals are expedited because they are of Chinese descent?
This is not a rumor. Just got an email from my large agency saying that April referrals will include May 31 and POSSIBLY some of June. So another month of just May may be in the works.
I have heard that there have been quotas met. That it is also an international quota not just agencies in the US. It will be interesteing to see what happens.
9:35, I think you are onto something with the 31st being a very unlucky LID date. We have a 10/31 LID. Our agency has a HUGE # of families with LID's in October. I imagine all the other agencies do too. With this trend of 3, possibly 4 months to get thru 1 month of LID's, maybe we'll get our daughter just in time for the 2008 Olympics!!!
My question is why would CCAA keep updating their docoments reviewed section now to August 31st if they are planning to slow down the wait causing long times between DTC and referral?? Would they still continue to review dossiers month after month and totally get ahead of themselves???
Just a thought. Maybe things will pick up in the months where there are less dossiers and again slow down in heavier dossier months?
Any ideas as to which months may be large months like May? We have a ways to go as were only DTC the end of FEb!!
Hello!!! I have just spoken with my agency (Spain) and the news are rather disappointing. Nothing certain, nothing clear, nothing definite, but I have been told to expect a wait of weelllll over 12 months(I have November 2005 LID). As a matter of fact, it has been insinuated that if I take back my dossier from China now and send it to another country (like Etiopia) I will have my child with me probably a year earlier, an option I am about to consider. My agency has told me that June and part of July are already matched, but that the Chinese government will delay the sending of referrals because too many children are being given in international adoption and this is just not a positive image.
Excuse my lousy English, but I needed to share this. I am at the verge of a nervous breakdown.
Here's another question. If the CCAA could add the update for the August dossiers being reviewed why couldn't they just add that matching has been done through May 30? If all of the agencies already have this information why not just post it and make it official!!!!!!??
I think we are going to see an 'ageing' of the babies referred if indeed they are being held back on purpose to slow things down. i.e. babies more in the range of 10-14 months instead of the younger ones we have seen.
I have already started to see this with the last batch of referrals.
it'll be interesting to see over the next few months if indeed what we are hearing is true: that the ccaa is deliberately lengthening the wait times. if this is the case babies would be languishing in orphanages for a few extra months...
I am guessing either today or the next CCAA website will be revised with matching dates as well if referrals have already been sent out.
As someone who has a June LID, the idea that I have been matched with my daughter and my referral is just sitting there, it's almost too much to think about. It angers me.
I think that this recently reported rumor is the most interesting one reported today and possibly the most disturbing.
From Spain: "My agency has told me that June and part of July are already matched, but that the Chinese government will delay the sending of referrals because too many children are being given in international adoption and this is just not a positive image."
Disturbing because you wonder if the matches were made with children young enough that they will be about 10 months at referral OR are they being matched like normal and will be more like 12 months plus at referral. This is a big deal to families who want an infant under 12 months, if possible.
OR is the CCAA getting ready to do a double set of referrals once they get past that MAy 31st backlog of people?
I'm thinking April will be a referral for the May 31st families and maybe one LID in June. And May referrals will show us the true progress that might be made in the future.
I honestly think this whole hold up is because of the large number of May families.
Any thoughts on this?
I don't believe CCAA are purposely holding back on sending out referrals for June/July if they have been matches as it does not look good for China as stated in an earlier post. They do their best to find these children homes. If they didn't want to support International Adoptions they would close it and not keep accepting more dossiers month after month if this were their intentions.
A person would think anyways??
I am wondering if anyone has more information on what the person at 10:08 said about new health restrictions. I have seen comments about a upper weight limit, etc but this is the first time I heard anything about diabetes. My husband is diabetic so this obviously concerns me greatly. Any elaboration is great.
Just a thought in response to the question of why the CCAA would continue reviews of dossiers well into the next couple months, when they are just "getting ahead of themselves..."
Perhaps that is one of the most productive things they can do as they essentially wait for children to become "paper ready."
I asked my agency if I could expect the process to speed up in the near future and the answer was quite firm: NO. It is just not going to happen. The new policy is to not give so many children for international adoption and they are acting on two fronts: First, from now on they will increase the number and quality the of requirements for adoption (income, education, etc.). And second, the sending of referrals will be delayed well over the 12 months to which they had compromised themselves up to now.
I don't think an agency would say this unless it is actually true. It would be like hitting their on head with a stick, wouldn't it?
One thing is for certain, CCAA needs to limit the number of people wanting to adopt from China because the dossiers outweigh the babies they are willing to allow out of the country.
What better way to eliminate parents than by placing new restrictions and lengthening the wait time? It makes perfect sense.
It will encourage people to go to other countries for adoption and will also eliminate people who decide on a whim or feel compelled to "save" a child. Only the truly dedicated ones will wait 1-2 years. The SN children will also have a stronger chance of finding forever families.
And voila, CCAA will accomplish the reduction on dossiers.
as per prior post. If China was changing requirements,income etc from now on how come none of us has heard that yet? Are you speaking on behalf of a US agency or another country?
What upsetting news!!
That would not jive with what CCAA has posted on their website as the reason for the delay for referral being there are just not another paper ready babies.
I think some agencies are putting foots in their mouths if they are coming forward with statements like this without concrete info.
If this were the case why are we all not hearing of these changes?
Besides the SARS outbreak... what were some of the "reasons" for slowdowns in the past? Is it truly just cyclical and this is a slow "cycle?" Or is it some of these other reasons... Hunan, not enough paper ready kids, CCAA moving, the Hague signing, etc.
I remember when things slowed down before the end of 2005 one of the popular "reasons" floating around was that their government year ends around Dec. 1st (?) and that China must have hit their "quota" for IA in 2005 and things would pick up once the new calendar gov't year started and the counting started over. I haven't heard any more of that rumor... obviously it wasn't that accurate b/c things haven't picked up.
Again, just wondering if we've heard all these things before and eventually the "cycle" WILL speed up OR are these new, unprecedented "reasons" for the slowdown????
Anybody know??? Anybody???
ana - i think your agency is getting way ahead of themselves. China has their restrictions/requirements posted on their website as well.
Personally, I think the rumor from Spain rings true, the CCAA IS intentionally slowing down the process. They're not going to say it, but I don't believe the "paper ready" argument as the total explanation. They're going to slow it down to 12 months and then they're going to slow it down further. This action will persuade new families to explore other countries and they'll save face - not so many of their children will be adopted out to foreign countries because they're unable to take care of their own.
While it makes me physically ill to think my Referral is just sitting there, I know there's not a thing I can do about it.
I also don't think the agencies know any more than we do. They go by what they're told.
It's not going to speed up. While the symantics change from agency to agency they're all reporting the same thing - a slow down to 12+ months.
I asked my Chinese friends what there thoughts were on the slowdown and they think because
China are starting to see the dynamics of the country as being more boys than girls they may be under pressure to slow down the inbalance of the sexes?.
I was also told in the past it was difficult for the Chinese People to adopt but CCAA are now relaxing their rules and more families are adopting within China.
A.
I bet the wait goes to 18+ months. I mean--for it to be 12 months, late June LIDs would have to get their referrals in late June, and then the CCAA would have to do full months from now on. I don't see that happening. I am willing to be it increases until dossiers drop off to a more reasonable level.
If I were much farther along in LID (I'm late June) I'd consider switching countries at this point. But I'm scared to switch right now because it will probably mean more delays.
What a great game of "telephone" we are playing!
I understand everyones desire to want to have accurate information -I want it too.
I have been using GWCA for over three years now (this is our second adoption) and they have always been very accurate with their information. Go back and read 11:09am's post. I bet they are with GWCA also.
This slowdown is really a lot more simple than everyone wants to think.
There are many, many more families adopting (even since our first adoption in '04) and there are just not enough paper ready children to handle all these families.
For instance: when we adopted in '04 an average month of referrals for GWCA was about 40 to 50 families. Now those numbers have more than doubled.
I love this blog and enjoy reading all the comments - but I would hate for people to become very upset at what they read especially if it is just a rumor.
Just remember that someday in the future (as your sitting around with your daughter(s) from China)- you will say "remember when we were all so fired up about this and that on "Rumor Queen"? Those were the days!!!"
Keep the rumors coming!!! Just know enough to keep your feet on the ground.
Wow Ana! your English writing skills are nearly perfect. Did you study in Great Britain or the USA? Just curious.
We do have proof that new restrictions are in place for potential adoptive parents. Beginning with the July reviews, people were refused the right to adopt due to certain medical conditions. This is fact. People that were adopting before with those identical conditions are now been refused.
Of course CCAA will choose who they feel would best suit their requirements. The news posted online for requirements is outdated.
It still states "Childless" as one requirement and we know this is not the case (as of yet).
We will only know what the changes are by watching and listening to those who have been refused in months ahead.
Oops, I was 2:22 and rereading my response it appears I am so upset that all grammar/spelling/usage has flown out the window! Argh!
ana is yanking your chain people. also, China is NOT going to relax their birth restriction policy any time soon. their minister confirmed that last week in the Shanghai post...read it with my own eyes.
I think in 2005 there was a about a 13% increase in adoptions in China to US citizens. Anyone know if the numbers have increased, and at what percentage, for other countries?
Erm...and how do we know Ana is yanking our chain? What proof do we have? Is there some kind of Blog Police Squad out there monitoring comments and swooping down investigating who's typing what?
Ana's comments, unfortunately, don't seem that far off the mark to me. So tell us--how do we know who's yanking and who's not?
anybody know the specific medical conditions that got people booted out of review in the July group? I had heard of one couple, where the husband was in a wheelchair, who were refused ( why? if single women can adopt? --presumably in each case you have one person in the household who can walk?)...anything else?
can you imagine getting to the review room and getting denied at THAT point? cruel.
The blog owner can check the user address on her comment and see if she is located in Spain.
2:31- If people in chairs cannot adopt, no circumstances taken into consideration then I am sure that others with medical conditions will get the boot.
And it is CRAZY that the couple was denied because as you said singles can do, why can`t a woman and man who have one member in a chair? Plain filtering that is all.
As for that couple, they are now ahead of us in another international program, with referral already!
2:31, yes, okay. I getcha. But the question is: how much is Ana yanking our chain, if our chain she is indeed yanking? Because it seems to me that this is a weirdo slowdown and I would be worried, Ana's doom and gloom prophecy or not. In other words, she's not really yanking MY chain, she's just pretty much confirming what I'm seeing: China is slowing way way down.
2:35, what program? I'd like to switch to that program!
RQ> not a fan of the adds - especially the pop-ups - though I understand why you want to do it.
Also, the ad bar/banner at the top has messed up the formatting for your sidebar of your blog. Links N stuff have shifted way to the bottom.
Our agency (HFS) told us in November that we could expect the wait from LID to referral to gradually increase to a 10-12 month wait and a number of other agencies related the same to their clients. If May 26, 2005 LIDs get approximately a March 26, 2006 referral doesn't that make the wait (just) 10 months? So the CCAA could still continue at half months until the wait increases (to 12 months) or they could refer a whole month next month and still remain in that timeframe of 10-12 months. Our agency has not changed the projected wait time as of yet so I'm still going with the 10-12 month timeframe. Figure for a 12 month wait (as the CCAA website says) and if you get a referral sooner you can rejoice or whatever you want to do!
The only ads I added would be the google box under my titlebar - the pop-up box has sporadically been there for a while, I was assuming it was a blogger thing, it happened once the traffic for the site took off in a big way. I'm not a fan of those pop-ups, either. Hate them, actually. If I can move us somewhere else then we won't have to deal with them anymore.
The side bar looks fine on my computer - I'll have to look at it on some more screens and see what's going on. I had to insert two extra carriage returns, but that was it. Maybe I should consult one of my geek friends about it.
2:39-Guatemala
Thanks anon 2:35 for letting us know what happened to that couple. I've been horrifed by that story ever since i heard it...
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