Icky rumor
Two items posted.
The first says their agency (no note of who their agency is) is expecting a batch of referrals that will cover May 31st. They do not say when they expect this batch. If they expect it next week that's not so bad. If they expect it at the end of the month. That's terrible.
The second item (different person, different board) says they got an email from their agency warning that there is a rumor floating around that May 31st might be the only referrals that come in April, and that they should just mark it as a rumor right now and the agency would let them know if they hear anything else.
I'd like to know why we're hearing from all of these agencies that the CCAA is working on June, while other agencies say they will only mail May 31st out this time.
posted by RumorQueen at 4/06/2006 07:03:00 AM
40 Comments:
I refuse to believe that CCAA takes a month to match only one day (May 31)! I'm not giving up hope about them matching June.
I am LID May 31st and I DO think that the next batch will only cover May 31st and will probably be mailed out at the end of the month. I hate to say it but I do NOT see the CCAA catching up anytime soon.
I have a hard time believing the rumours of May 31st as well. One has to think that the CCAA will match into June at least a week or two(???). Then again...who knew they'd only cover a few days this last time.
I'm still remaining optimistic about a 12month referral.
8.10.05 LID
Can you guys help me remember where the "may 31 is so big" info (rumor?) came from. i'm just thinking if 1 big agency had no LID's in teh 26 - 30 batch and then only a very small # of LID's in the May 31st batch, what is the chance they are SO unique and everyone else had huge # of LID's those days, and this big agency had almost none. I'm newer to this, and never heard the source of the May 31 is huge info.
good question anon 8:38, i wonder that too. i also wonder, in my more paranoid moments, if the ccaa does indeed read bulletin boards and sees rumors like this and says 'ahh, there's our excuse for april!...yeah, 400 dossiers in one day...the 'paper ready' babies excuse is getting old, let's use this one now!'
just kidding, sortof
I don't believe this rumour - I may believe it when it comes from a more reliable source - WHAT agency said this - What are the larger agencies saying???? I think ccaa will do at least a week of referrals -
My wife and I are using a 'big' agency and they did not have any LIDs from the 26th through the 31st of May. Yes...including the 31st. Sooo...good point. Where does this rumour of May 31st being so huge come from?
Please help us out RQ...?
My medium sized agency has no May 31 LID (only May31 DTC) which has a June 6 LID. The folks in June 6 are expecting their referral in April (but then again I'm pretty sure they were expecting it last month too!)
I read a post on a personal blog last night. The blogger stated that she spoke to her CCAI representative (on April 5th) and this person state that she felt that CCAI is expecting their June 2nd and 3rd referrals this month, but was 50/50 on any referral date past June 3rd (CCAI does not have any May 31st referrals). As we all know CCAA will do what they want but this gives me a little hope that one of the big agencies is expecting some June referrals.
Anon 9:25-
I posted just earlier about my wife and I using a large agency. We're in CO and CCAI is our agency. As I mentioned, and it is true...they did not have any LIDs for the 31st. I have not read or heard from anyone about anything definitive for June. If what that person says is true though, it's encouraging...
small agency..no May 31 LIDs only June 2 and one other June.
FWIW
Well, I'm not getting my hopes up, but I'm also not going to go crazy over one rumor either. The next week or 2 will tell the tale once more and more rumors start to surface.
It very very had for me to believe this 400 dossiers on may 31 rumor if ccai has NONE on that date. I know there are tons of other agencies but where are these boatloads of dossiers coming from if not from one of the biggies?
and of course this goes without saying but the ccaa used to refer more than 800 dossiers per month, so i just don't see why, even if this May 31/400 dossiers rumor IS true, the ccaa can't do more than 400!
GW hasn't indicated they expect to receive more than May 31st in this next batch, as a matter of fact the emails clearly state they don't know.
I hate to be the downer, but I don't think we'll see any of June either. We keep expecting there's going to be this rush of referrals that'll be minimum half months again and my belief is the CCAA will continue to slow it down until we've reached the 12 months from LID timeframe, and it may even go further than that.
If GW is telling their clients "12 months and possibly more" and they're the hyperconservative agency, it's going to be 12 months or more.
I'm not saying I like it, but I've prepared myself for it.
And I don't think size so much matter any longer. Proof would be the three business days processed during March. The big 3 didn't even have any LIDs during this timeframe so we know very few went out. I no longer think we can use the "size matters" methodology.
I agree with 9:54. My agency expected that I would receive my referral last month and we all know what happened.(I am May 31 LID)If May 31st isn't as large of a group as everyone has been speculating that why wasn't it included in the last batch? I predict there will be no June included in the April batch.
This whole 'intentionally slowing the wait down to 12 months' thing seems really shortsighted ( and frankly stupid) to me. what is the ccaa thinking? SO, ok the wait will clearly reach 12 months within in the next month or 2, so that means that they have to get through all the LID months after that in one month or it goes over. Not to mention the fact that there have been reports of HUGE months coming up, like October and august. So they are going to have to get through those in one shot too?
My point is that unfortunately i agree with anon 9:54 and i think the ccaa has set up a task for itself ( 12 months) that it cannot uphold for very long. it just seems that by taking 3ish months to get through each of the months of april, may and june lids (probably) they have gotten themselves to a 12 month wait, ok, great, but how can they sustain it?
Has anyone noticed how every agency is described as "hyperconservative". I keep hearing this about CCAI, great wall, bethany, anyone who will name their agency says they are so conservative that they have to be right, and yet it seems they are not always right. CCAI actually posted that May 31 was included last time (I guess since they didn't have any for that date none of their clients were affected). Just wondering who the Non-conservative agencies might be and what they are saying right now? (maybe something good...true or not)
They've sustained it before. The unanswered question to me isn't, "can they go faster if they have to", it's "how slow are they going to go". Just a reminder, and a plug for CCAA. We are venting our frustration, and some of it lands on them, just because they are in the position they are in. But in reality, we are all deeply appreciative of what they do and how they do it. There work is truely special and life changing and we just wait in joyful anticipation for our families to be united. In the mean time, sometimes our pain in waiting lands here and there as express the frustration.
I agree with 10:05. Let's all face the fact that there is no way they can sustain the 12 month wait if they don't build in a little "wiggle room" like keeping it 10-12 months. If they are determined to make it 12 months I predict that in no more then 2 months they will be behind and the wait will extend to 12-14 and grow exponentially from there. It is just simple math guys. We are a 9/29 LID (which seems to be a big day in Sept, like 5/31) and this wait is so tough..
Personally, i get a little tired of people apologizing for the ccaa, but everyone is entitled to their opinion
Yes, 10:31 #1, "wiggle room" that is what is lacking here! And that is what scares me about future months
RQ... could we put together a list of BIG, MEDIUM, SMALL agencies. When I read "big" I always assume it's either CCAI or GW... who else is considered a "big agency?" Bethany? CWA? You're good at these polls... do you want another project? :)
It never occurred to me that anyone thought that the CCAA has anything to apologize for, I wasn't apologizing for them (10:11), but instead apologizing for the folks how were sounding a little too harsh in their assessment of the CCAA and their slowdow. My thought has always been that their constraints and concerns are real and appropriate, and they aren't just trying to torture waiting parents. Perspective.
10:35..Imagine someone takes a vacation, gets sick, holidays, etc.. All of those events will push the date even more. If we had known back in Sept. that there was a chance we would have seriously looked at other countries. I think if the agencies are realistic about telling their clients that the wait may grow 2 to 3 times that they are saying at any moment people would think twice about China. The end result is the children are hurt the most. We are grown ups may hurt and ache for our children but they suffer the most. It would make sense for a country with so much people resources that they could hire some more to help keep the program moving forward. They do understand the need to get the children placed but seem unwilling to help improve the process. Just doesn't make sense to me...
CWA has only 2 May 31 LID's
Hope this helps!
If the CCAA is telling the complete truth and the slowdown is ONLY because there aren't enough paper ready babies there is no way they should be able to predict what the wait time will do. If there are other factors coming into play (political) then the CCAA is in fact controling the rate and flow of referrals and would be able to make predictions about the wait time. I am hoping this is the case. Otherwise, there really is no telling how long it could take!
Come on, let's the the sun shine in. We are waiting, and no doubt it hurts. But that doesn't mean there is something inherently negative going on in the process. The CCAA has made huge strides in international adoption, domestic adoption, the SWI have made great strides in the quality of care. Maybe we need a to blog about the good things for a while, as they are there.
Geez, Let's NOT use up all the space here talking about how great the ccaa is and how many strides they've made. Some of this may be true but really, it's not all that productive for a rumor board when people are beyond frustrated by long waits and lack of information...Just sayin
Hasn't the 10:50 poster learned that you cannot be positive as it ruins everyone's day. How dare they!
Our agency WACAP sent out its newsletter stating the wait will be up to 18 months. They have been very reliable. I have no clue if they are medium or small. But this is my second adoption with them and they have been very reliable. They give info when it is solid info and not until. So I will prepare myself fot that.
Anon 9:54-
CCAI sent us all a "predicted" time-table at the beginning of the year which had a column for 1/2 month referral groups. Our LID is 8.10.05. According to this chart for April we would see 6/1 through 6/15 (appx). Remember, this was put out at the beginning of the year. At that time, us 'early' August LIDs were already listed as a 12month wait. Now in April...things would have to continue at 1/2 month matches for us to remain at 12months. Otherwise...it's going to be a bit longer. Oh, and if we "do the math" ...the deeper in the year we go, the longer the wait time is extended. If the CCAA is going to try and keep things around 12 months...things will shift and change so that it's achievable. Somehow they'll make it work. :)
I honestly feel that our referral will be August/September but as someone in one of the posts here on RQ's page put it...it really does just come down to 'we'll see what we see when we see it'.
Waiting4 -- i am with ccai too and i remember that chart -- i think its pretty outdated already. i dont think they predicted how ridiculously long it'd take to get through May. But i don't remember exactly...
There should be a new newsletter from them out next week, i will be curious to see how they 'address' the wait time issue, since their newsletters only come out every other month and things have changed significantly ( for the worse) since the last newsletter, when they were saying 9 months...
those were the days
I am a May 31 Lid who *thought* she would be seeing a referral in January. Take it from me trying to stay positive is not going to help. Being realistic is however.
Anon 11:08
I agree about what you say about the 'chart'...although technically we're currently at the same place as on the chart. Question is if things are continuing on that pace or not. Doubtful, but yet hard to say (we are all just guessing and hoping here, right?!). the CCAA did match about 6 or 7 days one time, but then the next group was about a week and a 1/2. It probably levels out in the end.
My wife also thinks that no one truly gets all of the info from these agencies. Or maybe it's that the agencies don't get all of the info from the CCAA. I'm sure the agencies are pressing the CCAA for info just like we are pressing them. Anyone remember the 'letter regarding wait time' the CCAA put on their website last November? I found it to seem a bit defensive on their part. But anyways...
I am looking forward to this next newsletter addressing the wait time too. They seem to still be holding with the 10-12month thing..although it's definitely on the 12month end now. Guess we'll see...
Here in The Netherlands some people have LID's May 31st! For certain two groups (DTC April 19th!!! and May 12th). The group with DTC April 19th is waiting a long time now!
Anja
DTC 3/24
LID 3/29????
Does anyone know which months aren't big???? All I keep hearing is how big April and May were and now June, August and October are also huge months. If that's the case and they are so huge, then the wait time will easily increase beyond 18 months and even up to 24 months, especially if March 2007 is another huge month. At this point, I'd like to hear about those months that are suppose to be small - there seem to be few of them which gives me little hope that the CCAA will be able to keep the wait at 12 months.
Our LID is 1/5/06 and it might not be until May 2007 or later until we see our referral. So disappointing.
We've been through the China process once before and had a 9 month wait and I thought that was hard, it turns out that was nothing compared to this. I truly feel sorry for all of the first time parents - it's hard for everyone - but a little easier for those of us with little ones. I know it will happen, but it would be nice to know when.
Lisa, I agree with your post. I'm almost laughing as i write this, but i have heard that September is small (yippee!) But that is the only solace i can offer because it seems to me that every other damn month is huge. Like you said, up to march '06 even, ridiculous, it just gets worse.
I hope i am wrong.
Liz LId 2/17
The GWCA site now gives the time frame as eleven months, not eight.
Oooops, I just posted in the wrong place. Meant for that post to go where the agency info is (sorry!).
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