A very informative email
To the person who sent me this email, I thank you from the bottom of my heart for it.
All I will say about the person who sent it, is that they are in a position to know what they are talking about. And, I'm doing some major paraphrasing here, not using any exact quotes.
The major point of the email is that the CCAA makes forecasts of how many baby dossiers they will need from the orphanages well ahead of time (which makes sense, as the babies who will be adopted internationally have to have different documentation from the very beginning than those who will not). They base this on previous years, and on the cycles of when there are more and when there are less, also based on previous years. Apparently the CCAA underestimated the surge of dossiers that came in late May, and that is the major reason for this five days worth of LID's.
And yes, part of me is still saying, "but they knew about those dossiers since last May, and many of the babies referred are younger than a year old.. couldn't someone have maybe re-adjusted those figures???" But then, maybe they did adjust the figures, but didn't do it until August, and maybe they have lots of dossiers coming two months from now and THAT is when we'll see a huge surge of referrals. But I really must try not to jump to completely unsubstantiated conclusions like that. Back to the email.
The next major point of the email is that the move does seem to be taking up a lot of the CCAA's time. No time frame on when the move will be complete - but the furniture and computers have already been moved, and the staff are already working out of the new offices. The emailer also had questions about what was left to do, but apparently the staff is still working at it.
And, the biggest point of all, that makes me feel so much better, is that this person (who should know these things) says that they are not seeing or hearing anything that would point to an intentional slowdown. They did say that this does not mean it isn't so, just that they thought they'd have caught some whiff of it if that was the case, and they have not.
So, again, to the person who emailed me, thank you very much for the information. Anything else you want to send my way will also be greatly appreciated.
I have questions, of course. But, I'll just ask one. You aren't obligated to answer, I thank you for the information you sent. But, here is my question: Does the CCAA still believe the wait will only go out to 12 months? Many agencies are still saying the CCAA told them last year the wait would go up to the 10 to 12 month mark, and they (the agencies) are adamantly sticking to that number because the CCAA has not told them anything different. Do we have a reason to be hopeful that this is the case?
11 Comments:
Rumor Queen,
This makes some sense! Still wondering why they could not have corrected it before now, but it does seem to be a somewhat reasonable explanation. Have I told you have much I love you today?!? I run to this site every chance I get!
Thank you thank you thank you RQ. I don't know what I would do without this site. I pray that this info is spot on and we'll see a surge in referrals this summer.
This is just the only good news in what seems like an eternity. Thank you.
Thank you!!From someone with an overdue LID:)
I stopped reading APC, couldn;t take the negativity.... This is the FIRST glimmer of hope I hav read in a while-seems feasible....Thanks for sharing with all of us hormal waiting parents!
i only buzz apc occasionally for the same reason. i love this blog! my agency says don't read anything and is mum themselves unless they know for 100%. with a 3/10/06 DTC date, i am blue.... except for you Queen R :)
alainasmom - the thing to remember is that we are told it takes at the very minimum, about six months for the babies' paperwork to be made ready and arrive at the CCAA and be prepared for matching.
The most important first step for a baby who is going into the international program is the finding ad. Whatever the amount of time is that must pass before they can legally be declared an orphan (I've heard this amount at both 3 months and 6 months, but haven't seen it anywhere official, someone please correct me if I am mistaken on this) - whatever the time is, it starts at the finding ad.
Then there are medical tests that must be done. As the time passes then the caretakers fill out forms, and more medical checks are done. Pictures are also taken. When the paperwork is ready then it is sent to the CCAA, where I believe the the files also have to go through a review process before they go through the matching process.
I've seen a few things on that time frame. One story goes that it's three months before the child can legally be declared an orphan, and they wait for that amount of time before they do most of the expensive stuff. The other story goes that it's six months, and they get close to it before doing the expensive stuff, and some files get sent a month or two before the cut off because they know it will take that long before matching can take place.
So, I don't know for sure the time, but I do know that there is a time frame, and that the very youngest babies tend to be 7 to 8 months (a 6 month one pops up occasionally, but it's rare). The 7 to 8 month babies were for the most part abandoned within days of their birth.
There are older babies too, sometimes a year or more, who were abandoned at birth. Maybe this orphanage knows they will be sending two batches this year - one in January and one in June... so they time the paperwork to get all of the babies they can into the January group, and the babies who don't have completely finished paperwork have to wait until June for their file to be sent.
So, you see... I don't really think we can count on this particular slowdown giving younger and younger babies.
Hello -
This is my first time posting, but have been reading for weeks.
We have a 6/2 Lid-
On thing to factor into the age question.. China only has a certain percentage of children that they allocate for International adoption.
Somewhere around 10%. This would be the number of expected paper ready children.
If need increases they will increase this percentage and prepare more children to be paper ready. So that shortage is not on Children in general but one of 'paper ready' children.
This would explain why the ages have not been comming down. Since the need is only to increase the the precentage of paper ready children - the age distrubution within the total children would remain the same.
China in some ways considers the need for international adoption embarassing, and to save face - for lack of a better term. Limits the figures of available children. However they will adjust those figures to some extent based on need.
The actual numbers are staggering...
Somthing like 10% of the documented females born - are missing....
Presumed either in orphanages or deceased....
Hello -
This is my first time posting, but have been reading for weeks.
We have a 6/2 Lid-
On thing to factor into the age question.. China only has a certain percentage of children that they allocate for International adoption.
Somewhere around 10%. This would be the number of expected paper ready children.
If need increases they will increase this percentage and prepare more children to be paper ready. So that shortage is not on Children in general but one of 'paper ready' children.
This would explain why the ages have not been comming down. Since the need is only to increase the the precentage of paper ready children - the age distrubution within the total children in orphanages would remain the same.
China in some ways considers the need for international adoption embarassing, and to save face - for lack of a better term. Limits the figures of available children. However they will adjust those figures to some extent based on need.
The actual numbers are staggering...
Somthing like 10% of the documented females born - are missing....
Presumed either in orphanages or deceased....
In our local FCC group we have a family that just got their referral this week for a 6 1/2 month old and a family left today to pick up their now almost 9 month old. Most of the babies I have seen referral for this month are very young.
The moving thing is odd, because our agency says they visit the CCAA several times a week, and have yet to see any signs of moving - no moving boxes, no furniture gone, etc. I guess maybe they are starting with very non-public areas??
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