Referrals per LID Month
I've seen speculation that the CCAA isn't really sending out the same amount of referrals every month. The theory goes, that we used to have pages and pages of people posting their referrals to APC, and now there aren't anywhere near as many as there used to be.
In early February I posted this chart, showing the stats from this page.
Here are the raw numbers for the past two years (excluding May 2005 referrals, which apparently (hopefully) needs more time for people to submit their info)
May-03 . . 18
Jun-03 . . 14
Jul-03 . . 26
Aug-03 . . 32
Sep-03 . . 19
Oct-03 . . 22
Nov-03 . . 21
Dec-03 . . 25
Jan-04 . . 19
Feb-04 . . 22
Mar-04 . . 24
Apr-04 . . 36
May-04 . . 14
Jun-04 . . 14
Jul-04 . . 45
Aug-04 . . 29
Sep-04 . . 28
Oct-04 . . 33
Nov-04 . . 23
Dec-04 . . 21
Jan-05 . . 20
Feb-05 . . 18
Mar-05 . . 33
Apr-05 . . 33
Once again - we know that the CCAA did more than 33 referrals of people with an April LID. We are looking at ratios and percentages here.. not actual numbers.
Okay, I did this, thought it meant they weren't doing more, published it, and then immediately pulled it when I realized what this really means.
January was the last full month. February was a half month - meaning it took two months to do almost as many LID's as the previous month.
March took 2 months to get through, meaning they did a little more per month, but still no where near what they had been doing in a month.
And April - well, we have to divide that April number by 3.
Also, remember that on some of those smaller months that you're seeing in '03 and '04 that there were some months that they did a month and a half at a time. So on those small months, they were doing more than that in a month.
May is showing as 8. If we think that maybe that's the first batch of referrals... it's even smaller. I'll hold off a bit before including May in the figures.
It really does look like they are doing less referrals per month than they have been.
And think about it - referrals started arriving yesterday. We saw one post to APC. The first day of referrals used to have from a half dozen to a dozen posts - with many more to follow the next day. I haven't seen any yet today.
Again - I would really like to see some quarterly numbers from the State Department.
posted by RumorQueen at 3/28/2006 10:56:00 AM
3 Comments:
You can join APC here:
groups.yahoo.com/group/a-parents-china/
It's a great source of information. Definitely feel the place out before you post, though.
So if we combine the 15,000 dossiers received last year (noting that the first 3 1/2 months of those dossiers received referrals in 2005) with someone else's info that the "quota" for this year is 12,000, there is hope that most of the rest of the 2005 LID's could receive referrals sometime in 2006. That sounds a little better than some of what I've been thinking lately.
Wendy, I can see why you'd think that, but let me explain what you're actually seeing.
The chart is showing how many people with a March 2003 DTC reported their referral information. It's not saying they got their referral in March 2003. The March 2003 DTC people actually got their referral in November of 2003 - a good bit after the SARS catchup.
Post a Comment
<< Home