For Karen - more analysis

I did some theorizing about cut-offs based on the June database numbers on this post. I’m not very happy with those numbers though, and you're heading in a different direction with your thought processes anyway, so here goes: If June Database shows May 31st at 86 and the Rumored actual May 31st is 400 then the June Database is around 21.5% of actual (and just for the record, this is a pretty big if) If they are doing 1100'ish referrals a month, then that would be (by the June database numbers) about 230 referrals a month. Going down the month that way means the first cutoff is June 6th, the next cut off is June 20th, and when we get to July 8th we’re at 229 so that would probably be the next cut off. It is important to remember we are basing this on three variables that we are not sure of.

1. That there are 400 dossiers for May 31^st
2. That they are referring 13,000 / 12 dossiers per month
3. That the June numbers are an accurate cross section of the actual dossiers in China

Just to show how flawed this could be: The June numbers show 566 dossiers, and if we are basing a month at 1100, then the total June numbers are about half of what they can do, not 21.5%. I actually trust our poll numbers more, but we just don’t have them that broken down. I suppose I could put one up – I can only do 10 questions, so I’d need to group some dates together, but could count on weekends being skipped (there were none logged in on weekend days on the June Database).