The June Chart
I posted a while back that someone sent me a pdf file that the June site had put together. I'm not going to make the whole thing public, but I've put this together to the right, just showing the totals for each day.
It does appear that 5/31 and 6/3 are both a good bit bigger than the other days.
It also appears that if they can do (according to this) around 75 at a time, then next month will only be 5/31, and the next month will be lucky to get through June 3rd, the next month through June 8th, then through June 15th, then maybe they could do a huge batch and get through the 20th, and then the next month could maybe get through the 23rd, and then the next month through the 28th, then just right at 7/8. So, another eight months to get to 7/8. If this chart is a fair representation of LID's.
Unless they could have done more, but just not all of the 31st, so they stopped where they could give a cut off. Maybe they could have done, say 135... then that would mean next month will go through 6/3, then the next month through 6/13, then through 6/21, then through 6/28, then through at least 7/8 (that would take about half of what they could do, so they'd get a good bit farther than the 8th as long as there isn't another huge day). So, in that instance, another five months to complete June.
Both are depressing.
posted by RumorQueen at 3/25/2006 08:14:00 AM
12 Comments:
Hey rumor queen! Is this just for one agency with JuneDTC or the general JuneDTC group? My agency reported itself 114 referrals from the same May LID.
i have to agree with piller here...didn't we hear last timearound that ONE agency alone got 90 referrals?
The chart is for multiple agencies - I'm assuming they all filled in a database and someone put it into a spreadsheet.. it shows how many from each agency, and then totals at the bottom. I just listed the totals.
This of course will not be everyone, it will only be the people who responded (or filled in the database). No way to know if it's an accurate percentage of the actual LID's or not.. but if it is, it bites.
Hi RQ-
I'm curious as to where you're getting the number of 75? In the last batch, CCAI alone had 114 referrals.
is it possible that june is even bigger than april and may were? i remember your charts for april/may lids had about 500-550 for each of those months. If i did the math correctly, June has about 650. (i.e. may 31 to june 30)
another monster month?
RQ is using the first few days of the June DTC group's reported membership to stand in for the (unknown) total number of real referrals.
She's saying IF the June DTC group LID spread is representative of the entire China adoption world, and IF the number of referrals released by the CCAA in each batch is going to hold steady, THEN, based on those numbers, this is how long it would take to go through June.
Frankly, it's a dreadfully dismal picture, bad for those who have been waiting a long time, worse for those of us who are planning to be LID any time soon.
Thank you Kate - great explanation.
The only glimmer of hope I have is that maybe they could have done more if they hadn't had to recreate the lost dossiers. But, at this point I don't see a lot of reason for optimism.
I hope Spain gets an answer, then at least we'll be able to let our employers know a decent time frame.
Hi. I may not be getting this right but here goes - I think there were approx. 3,000 US adoptions from China last year? And, I also think they have been doing full months for the past year (until recently). So this tells me that they were processing approximately 250 referrals per month for the US - are my estimates way off?
Jeanine
let me try this again. I just checked the travel.state.gov website and it says there were 7,906 immigrant visas issued in 2005 for Chinese orphans. So if they were processing full months in 05, this is 659 referrals per month. Is my logic way off here? I am very open to correction, information is power :)
Jeanine
Chantalle, I think your agency is being very optomistic. By the time the next referral batch comes in at the end of April, my 11th month of waiting will be beginning. I think it's time we brace ourselves for a wait over 12 months. I just don't see how, given the information we have now, we'll get our referrals in the originally given timeframes.
I keep thinking back to when we first started and were told 6 months to referral. This blows.
Call me crazy, but this whole slow down HAS to be due to more than just a few big months. Jeanine is right....if last year they could handle about 600 matches a month, they should be able to get through MOST of this coming June in a single referral batch. If this batch that is in the mail only has 75 referrals, it's got to be an extenuating circumstance, and not the number of matches they plan to put out from here on out. Goodness, that would be like reducing their output by 85%, wouldn't it? They'd be sitting around twiddling their thumbs to go THAT slow. It's gotta be something else, in addition to more-than-ever dossiers: either not enough paper-ready babies, Hunan, the lost-in-the-mail referrals, hoping to reduce the number of dossiers by lengthening the wait, or a combo of all these. But all this talk of "May was so big" isn't telling the whole story for me anymore. Come on. When was the last time a referral batch included 3 days worth?! And the paper-ready baby thing seems odd too. When they saw all these dossiers pouring in last year, wouldn't they have called the SWIs then and asked them to start writing up more babies?
I'd love it if Spain got a response. As ever, the worst part of this (well, besides not knowing the WHEN) is not knowing THE REASON. Sure, I knew anything could happen to the wait times. But I figured if something changed, we'd have a clue as to WHY.
GW got 90 referrals from one day's log ins--May 17th and CCAI got 110+ so they certainly can do big batches if they have the babies ready, both these dates came in the same referral group.
Oh, just read the comments and you already know this. Oh well, I'll leave the comment :)
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