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Saturday, March 25, 2006

Explanation of how poll data is extrapolated

The information from the June DTC group is information from the June DTC group, it is not official CCAA numbers. Only the CCAA has the actual numbers, and they aren't sharing. The information posted comes from those who are members of the June group AND who submitted their info. It may or may not be an accurate cross section of the group. Those numbers might represent 10% of what the CCAA actually has. They may represent half. They may represent 80%. We don't know. But, we do know that IF it is a representative cross section of what the CCAA has, then we can make certain assumptions based on what has already happened. And that is what I was doing. The biggest variables that might make those assumptions incorrect would be if:
1. They spent a lot of time recreating dossiers last month and will be able to do more in the coming months. 2. This is not an accurate cross section and is weighted heavy on some time periods and light on others.
If you'll remember this poll, I tried to dissect the month somewhat to see which sections were big and which were small. If we want to make a comparison of my poll vs the June numbers we get: June Numbers 5/26 - 6/3........38% 6/4 - 6/12........17% 6/13 - 6/21......21% 6/22 - 6/30.....24% My Poll 5/26 - 6/3........43% 6/4 - 6/12........15% 6/13 - 6/21......21% 6/22 - 6/30.....22% So, if we use the numbers from my poll, and IF the numbers from my poll are evenly distributed so that the numbers for 5/26-5/30 are greater than they were for the June numbers.... then they'll get through June just a tad faster. We have a whole lot of "if's". All we are doing is estimating based on the available data, and the available data could be flawed.

2 Comments:

Blogger RumorQueen said...

I'm not saying I think it is going to take 5 or 6 or 8 months to get through June - I just did the math to see what it would say... and that's what the math says.

I don't have any idea what to expect this next time.

3/25/2006 10:11:00 PM  
Blogger RumorQueen said...

That number - the 75... that is a percentage of what the CCAA has. It could be 10%, meaning they actually did 750 (doubtful, but there is always that possibility). It could be 50%, meaning they did 150. We don't know.

And I'm not sure how to explain it any other way. Just don't get hung up on the numbers, use them as guideposts, not numbers. Think of it like Algebra, in our formula, x=75 and Y=86... it could also be that in reality x=750 and y=860. The equation will still be right as long as all of the other numbers are also in multiples of 10.

I do think those numbers are probably pretty close to an accurate cross section, because they are pretty close (percentage wise) to the poll I ran.

As for your points - I completely agree. All of those things could very well be factors in the small month this month. There is also the factor that they are supposedly going to be moving next month.

Best case scenario is probably that they finish the 31st out in another week and release those as soon as they are done with them, and then get a ways into June right before they take off for the May Day Holiday. This assumes that they got some of the 31st done and didn't want to release any of them until they could get them all done.

But, with them (supposedly) moving this month... not sure how realistic that is.

3/26/2006 09:13:00 AM  

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