Explanation of how poll data is extrapolated

The information from the June DTC group is information from the June DTC group, it is not official CCAA numbers. Only the CCAA has the actual numbers, and they aren't sharing. The information posted comes from those who are members of the June group AND who submitted their info. It may or may not be an accurate cross section of the group. Those numbers might represent 10% of what the CCAA actually has. They may represent half. They may represent 80%. We don't know. But, we do know that IF it is a representative cross section of what the CCAA has, then we can make certain assumptions based on what has already happened. And that is what I was doing. The biggest variables that might make those assumptions incorrect would be if:

1. They spent a lot of time recreating dossiers last month and will be able to do more in the coming months. 2. This is not an accurate cross section and is weighted heavy on some time periods and light on others.

If you'll remember this poll, I tried to dissect the month somewhat to see which sections were big and which were small. If we want to make a comparison of my poll vs the June numbers we get: June Numbers 5/26 - 6/3........38% 6/4 - 6/12........17% 6/13 - 6/21......21% 6/22 - 6/30.....24% My Poll 5/26 - 6/3........43% 6/4 - 6/12........15% 6/13 - 6/21......21% 6/22 - 6/30.....22% So, if we use the numbers from my poll, and IF the numbers from my poll are evenly distributed so that the numbers for 5/26-5/30 are greater than they were for the June numbers.... then they'll get through June just a tad faster. We have a whole lot of "if's". All we are doing is estimating based on the available data, and the available data could be flawed.