Several items
- No final validation, but a few agencies are reporting the CCAA will be closed May 1-5.
- The US Consulate in Guangzhou will be closed May 1-3
- Spain seems to still be reporting the cut-off at June 6th. Some reports say they are reporting June 6th as being a "safe bet" and are saying it could go farther.
- The medium sized agency that was reporting June 16th was basing it on the number of referrals they have received for the past couple of months. If they receive that many referrals this month then it will cover that far.
- Multiple agencies are reporting that referrals were not mailed out on Friday.
posted by RumorQueen at 4/21/2006 12:16:00 PM
20 Comments:
RQ-Thank you so much for all work you do gathering as much info as possible. We are LID 2/8/2006. We know that we have a long road ahead. Lets hope this new batch will be big and things shorten for everyone. Keep up the good work.
B&K
RQ, has any of the agencies said when they might be mailed or why they weren't mailed today?
Traditionally, the CCAA sends referrals out just before they break for a holiday. So, with that in mind, we would expect them to be mailed next Thursday or even Friday. The idea seems to be they do as many as they can and then leave - so that there are no matches sitting on a desk for a week while no one is there.
IF they had sent them this week I'd have been surprised. With the new "shortage of babies" line I wasn't ruling it out, because I figured maybe they would match all they could and then send them since no more could be matched next week anyway.
So, I look at them not sending them yet as a good thing. They still have paperwork to match.
good info to know!
I'm guessing that the CCAA is mailing out Monday as I think somewhere someone said their agency expected to have the referrals on Wednesday (????) All of us CCAA website watchers I'm sure will be on Sunday night seeing if they've posted anything...
RQ-
do you think the fact the CCAA announced about a week earlier than the past months that they were 'working on' (prepping) matches but yet aren't sending them out until when they normally would have might indicate that they possibly are sending more referrals than originally thought? and, if so could this be due to them going to be out a week and wanting to keep the time of month they do matches roughly the same after the 'holiday'? just thinking...with alittle hopefullness thrown in. :)
Was referral-waiting always this draining? We've just been advised to prepare for a wait of up to 16 months. We're LID 3/14/06, so there is so much rollercoasting time ahead of us.
Too bad -- it sounds like that rumor about the 16th cutoff was pretty flimsy after all. i really thought that medium sized agency had some real info, not just a prediction based on past numbers. Unfortunately, we all know past numbers don't matter any more.
eli - if they are basing it on the numbers from the past two months then that really could matter.
As we've seen from the polls, once you get past the 3rd the numbers drop pretty dramatically.
Interesting to hear how they make their estimations. Would be nice if they are right. But, not counting on it.
Personally, I'm counting on the 3rd, am hopeful for the 6th, and think something around the 9th or 12th is just a slight possibility, with the 16th being a long shot.
The shortage of babies comes from the 12,000 children allowed to be adopted and the supposed 2000 dosiiers per month. If this is true than only 1,000 paper ready babies per month and 2,000 families waiting. When we adopted our first child her paperwork was logged in the same month as ours was. So this makes sense. I just hope the 2,000 families per month is not corect and there are less and less applying each month so the wait gets shorter not longer
I keep hearing this 2000 per month figure but i have to believe it is not true (or that it is only true for May and june 05 or something) because if they really truly are getting 2000 dossiers per month on a regular basis then isn't it INSANE not to apply quotas? Like starting yesterday?
now if course WE don't/can't know, but the ccaa sure knows if the so-called huge months of may and june 05 are aberrations ( they just have to count the piles in the review room) so i have to believe that if there's no talk of quotas, then subsequent months must be smaller.
Or maybe i am applying too much logic to an illogical situation
I have heard 2 stories on the large months 1 was that April and May were large groups and 2 was that June and July were large groups. Last year only what 8500 children were adopted from the US out of 12,000 adoptions. How is it so many more people are adopting all of a sudden? I guess only time will tell what the truth really is. The point I was trying to make was that the children are logged in to the CCAA like we are. Our daughter was logged in the same month we were at almost the same time. She waited in line 6 months to be placed with our file. If there is a 12,000 children per month quota system then that is 1,000 children per month being paper ready. If there is say over that amount in a given month that would make a possible baby shortage after a few large months of dossiers. How many months are rather large only time will tell. I am just trying to make sense of this slowdown and put whatever info I hear into the equation and try to come close to figuring it out
zoemom-
It seems to me, and this is just one of those things that occurs to me when seeing numbers, that there are many more agencies participating in the China program now than there were even 3 years ago. Does anyone have those numbers?
It just seems like the last time I saw the number of agencies participating it was triple digits when before I only remember double digits. Does that make sense?
I understand that there was a thing on 60-Minutes or something about China adoptions...apparently they touched on the increase of families adopting compared to the amount of 'paper-ready' children. Also they talked about China's domestic adoption program, special needs, etc. Anyone see that? I was just told alittle about it from family. Sounded like it was interesting and touched on things I've seen posted on here.
SAm and tres, i think both things are true, but i think the number of families has finally grown faster than the number of available babies.
and yes, the numbers of referrals increased each year for many years, but i think the days of increases are over, unless china decides to increase their quota on babies going overseas. didnt we read somewhere here, or maybe it was on the 60 minutes show, that china wants to keep that figure at about 12,000? This figure is probably very similar to last year since the US accounted for about 8K of that. unfortunately, i dont think that they are just going to provide however many babies are needed for however many dossiers they receive. they have their limits, for whatever reasons, and this is why we have seen the wait times double...
i just saw debann's post and i repeated alot of what she said...but for the record, i dont believe either #1 or #2. But yes, that is indeed what they are claiming..
one of our child match directors at the agency we use told me (when i brought up the quota thing) that she felt that they would re-implement it if things continued this way. Obviously, if they end up doing it, only people just starting the process would be affected, not those with Dossiers already logged in. The more I read about and 'read into' things the more I feel that the China adoption process is going through growing pains just like the country itself. If we truly are sending an increasing amount of Dossiers over and they are trying to accomodate international adoptions as well as building their domestic program (along with everything else), then the CCAA will have to work out a balance or something. I'm sure they don't want to just push everyone away after they've worked to make themselves the 'model of international adoptions'.
Sam,
What kind of quota are you thinking should be instituted? Are you suggesting they should place limits on our agencies? Do you think they should discriminate?
i think what sam means, and this is what i mean when i talk about quotas, is simply that china tells each agency that they want only a certain number of dossiers from them per month and no more. Or that they want no more dossiers at all for several months starting at a given date. and then the agencies have to implement waiting lists, much as they do for singles. i.e. you could finish you dossier and have to wait 3 months to go dtc.
someone correct me if i am wrong but i believe that is what quotas meant when they had them in 2002 or 2003 -- i am not sure of the exact dates, but it was around then.
From what I know about China's history, "orphans" aren't considerend "marryable" anyway b/c family ties are huge in China... So "well off" children marry other "well off" children & so on & so forth... I suppose orphans could marry other orphans but is the population of abandoned boys comparable to the population of abandoned girls? And the huge "defecit" of girls has been going on for years, I don't think them implenting this now (if that is in fact what they're trying to do) is going to make a big difference in the overall population any time in the near future (maybe the childrens children that are there now?). Just my opinion... It's possible that my thinking about who is marryable and not is changing along w/ the country but it's taken many, many years to change how they look @ girls (& I've definately read that not everyone thinks that girls are valued over there any more today than they were 100's of years ago).
The quotas began for Dossiers submitted in Dec 2001 and ended for married couples after Nov 2002. The singles quota had been 5% of submitted dossiers during that time and was raised to 8% when the married couple quota was lifted.
Traci - that may be true, but we are talking about *millions* of men not being able to marry in 15 years or so. When that happens then the choice will be "don't marry at all or marry someone with no knowledge of her ancestors". Given that choice, I can't see them choosing to not marry at all.
However, the girls that are currently being adopted really aren't going to make that much of a dent in the percentages.
sd - who are you talking to? I'm not assuming anything... even if every single "orphan" girl in China (even the special needs girls) end up marrying someone, there will STILL be millions of men without a wife.
Your message is pretty cryptic, I'm really not sure what you are trying to say, but I don't see anyone assuming that anyone "intends" anyone to have to marry anyone.
Post a Comment
<< Home