Looking at the numbers again
Let's visit this again. I don't think they can be getting a steady 2,000 every month, since we show such a difference in the months on the poll. Maybe they took last year and divided by 12 and gave the average? Or, maybe they gave the biggest month? I mean, if June was 2,000, then that means that July was about 1,440 and August was about 1,600. So, maybe some of those months can be more than just half months?
I'm really trying to find some positives in this. But it's not easy.
Meanwhile, if they mailed the latest batch Thursday or Friday, then why is the CCAA site not updated yet? It's Monday night in China.
posted by RumorQueen at 3/27/2006 08:50:00 AM
2 Comments:
You forget: MOST adoptive parents never find their way to Yahoo groups, let alone vote in online polls. There were 7,906 immigration visas issued by the USA to Chinese orphans in 2005. Another ~5,500-6000 children were adopted by families in other parts of the world.
Compare that to how many LEGITIMATE people are subscribed to a Yahoo DTC group (remember that many people are subscribed multiple times to the same group: husband's work email, wife's work email, their home email, grandparents' email, etc.). Try purging a Yahoo DTC group sometime, and trust me: the results are eye-opening. I've done the maths in the past, and estimate only about one in ten adopting families join Yahoo groups.
Could CCAA be receiving over 2,000 dossiers a month right now -- especially in view of the changes in Russia, formerly the #2 country for adoptions by US citizens? In view of what's just happened with Romania??? the Ukraine?? the restrictions other countries are imposing???
ABSOLUTELY!!! Guatemala will surpass Russia this year in adoptions to the USA. This is a MAJOR change, and IMO adds credence to what CCAA/BLAS reportedly told the Netherlands officials. Bottom line: developing statistics and trends from Yahoo group memberships is interesting.. but hardly accurate.
Sheri - that's what I've been saying the whole time. Seriously, it's not scientific, and my best hope is that we have a semi-accurate cross section of the actual numbers, meaning we can still make some pretty educated guesses.
I've said this so many times, I'm really getting tired of saying it.
Post a Comment
<< Home