Updated Spreadsheet including March
Someone told me the membership number for March. The new average is 391 and the median is 373.
Since many people seem to join the list they are DTC and the lists before and after their DTC group, I'm going to guess that the big DTC months are April and May, with the big LID months being May and June.
I also find it interesting that the numbers go down so much once the wait started increasing. November and December are at almost half of the average (which means they've also brought the average way down, too).
The average if you just figure from October of '04 through September of '05 is 419, and the median is 418.
What might this mean as far as wait times? I have no idea. It's possible the CCAA has enough paperwork coming in from new orphanages to handle this without further slowing down. It's also possible they do not.
posted by RumorQueen at 1/13/2006 06:35:00 AM
6 Comments:
RQ, there's also the fact that people don't necessarily join their DTC groups right away; I seem to recall that we had quite an influx into our group the three months before referral. Just FYI.
Thanks for this great analysis. I have a November LID and am on a DTC group. But I wonder at what point in time people typically join these groups - right after they are DTC or as it gets closer to referral. Those later months may increase in membership over time.
The closer to Referral date you get, the more people join the DTC groups. In the month prior to expected Referrals, it is not unusual to have 75-100 new members join a DTC group. Thus, I don't think the smaller numbers in Oct/Nov/Dec2 005 DTC groups have any relevance whatsoever. I am list-owner of May2003DTC and March2005DTC groups. The March2005 group is almost TWICE as large as May 2003. Does this mean more people are adopting from China? Or more people are joining multiple groups (the answer to this is a definite YES, since March2005 was split three ways for referrals), or does it simply mean more people adopting are finding their way to the internet?? All of the above, IMO. Moreover, many a family subscribes to the same group under multiple userids: one for home, one for work, one for each spouse, one for grandparents, one for traveling companions, etc. Bottom line: over 1,100 families from around the world adopt from China each month.. yet only about 250-275 of those 1,100 families ever join their DTC group.
I should add - March2005DTC had 545 members a couple of weeks ago (we're now at 510 members), when I initiated a Roll Call in an effort to get rid of people who were simply "looky-loos" wanting to "share in the excitement" of Referrals. Many people do join the DTC groups just for this purpose - they falsify their answers to the entry questions in order to pass scrutiny and be approved to Join. Other people join a group very early in the paperchase process, before they are DTC, and then stay with that group even tho their DTC date is pushed back for various reasons. We have several members in the March2005DTC group with LIDs of September 2005!! They've asked to remain with the group because they joined when the group first formed, have participated in all the activities, and identify with the group and its members. And... yes, I've allowed them to stay on as members - we've come to care about them just as much as they care about us!!
RQ, you are truly the RQ. Excellent work, as usual!
Okay, ya'll have convinced me. The news that an extra hundred or so people join before referrals is wonderful news for the spreadsheet, as that means that April and May are likely no bigger than other groups.
Giving us yet one more reason to think that the "1800 when there are usually 500 to 700" information just might be bogus.
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