And then there is this
The RumorQueen just saw this:
Today my agency posted on their internal bulletin board that last May the CCAA received 1800 dossiers! My agency also stated that in pastmonths, they had been receiving an average of 500 to 700 dossiers.We are told that there have been around 7,000 adoption from the US per year, and that there are around 10,000 adoption out of China per year, total. Some say there are as many as 12,000 per year total. 10,000 / 12 months = around 800 dossiers per month. Which does not agree with this agency's statistics, making this info immediately suspect. I wonder what agency this is coming from? Anyone want to let me know? Either through the comments or you can send me an email. But, still. If this is true, then it could take a while for them to get through May. But then there is the rumor that comes from BLAS that they will refer September as early as April or May. Meaning they've got to get through May lickety split so they can get through June and July and August so they can do September. < Insert Charlie Brown scream here >
posted by RumorQueen at 1/12/2006 11:00:00 AM
6 Comments:
I just read a (reputable-looking)news story that says 15000 Chinese children were adopted internationally last year. So that's an average 1250 a month if it's right. But 1800? Wow. Wish I knew how accurate that was.
The only thing we really know for sure is the number of American adoptions out of China. These numbers are from the State Dept:
In 2002 there were 5,053
In 2003 there were 6,859
In 2004 there were 7,033
And in 2005 the US Embassy in Guangzhou reports they issued Visas for 7,906 babies (this comes from Jane Liedtke).
So, the jump this year is about the same as jumps in previous years.
So, I still don't really believe them when they say the problem is more dossiers. We don't know what the numbers for other countries might be (or maybe we do, if anyone has numbers for your country, please share them), but if they are parallel with the US numbers then I'm just not seeing a huge increase.
As for numbers in news stories... to my knowledge the CCAA never divulges actual numbers. So, I'm not sure where the reporter would have gotten the information, unless maybe they got numbers from the countries that adopt from China and added them up. Is this story on a service where you can email the author? Might be interesting to ask where that number comes from. I would love to see an official number.
I have a feeling they probably will come out with maybe the end of April and the first week or so of May in the next batch. I hope it is soon, but who really knows. I have a feeling after CNY they will try to play catch up, but again I have no proof just a hunch. Of course I live in Denial Land. :-)
Ours are negligible. I think a Slight rise may take it up to nearly 200 for the year (oh yeah) and I saw earlier that Finland is also a small number - about 300. Ireland is probably only double figures.
This page http://www.adoption.ca/news/050527stats04.htm
shows Canadians adopted 1,112 in 2003 and 1,001 in 2004. I can't find any figures for 2005.
And this page
http://64.233.187.104/search?q=cache:L0t_XMZyxhEJ:www.cyh.com/library/Fact_Sheet_No2-Adoptions.pdf+china+australia+adoptions+2002+2003+2004&hl=en&client=firefox-a
shows Australians adopted 66 in 2002-03 and 112 in 2003-04.
I can't think of another country that might have thousands.
Another note on this.
Apparently AAI's China program coordinator is who was told by the CCAA that last May the CCAA received 1800 dossiers.
Don't know if they are referencing Adoption Associates Inc or Adoption Advocates International... but either way, this is not an agency from which we normally see rumors.
Two things:
1. The CCAA doesn't usually give this kind of info out
2. This doesn't say "those who were LID in May", it says they received that many in May. Many of the May DTC people have June LID's, so this doesn't necessary mean when we are done with May we are home free. (if this is true)
And, as an afterthought, a third thing: I looked through some Russian boards because I'd heard somewhere that they shut down in February or March and people switched their paperwork to China. I couldn't find anything like that on those boards. There was a rule change that made people have to wait longer, and a few people were considering switching, but it looked like most people figured they'd just stick with where they were. It's possible people earlier in the process who weren't on those boards did switch, but that many? Our agency only handles China adoptions - maybe someone with an agency that also handles Russian adoptions can ask them if they saw a lot of people switching countries, and if that led to that many more dossiers being submitted to China.
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