Conflicting Rumors

I will have a very long post on my opinions about the Human Rights piece later, but for now I want to lament about conflicting rumors. A few agencies are giving timelines that would keep up the half months for at least another couple of months. They are assuming the wait will go to out to a year, maybe 14 months, before it starts coming down again. For us to reach 14 months, that means half months would have to continue until the last half of September would get referrals in November. Ouch. And yet there are other agencies preparing their September people for an April or May referral. That is so frustrating - can September people really be expected to believe our referral will arrive between May and November? That's just too big of a window, and it's why we are all so frustrated. Or at least it's why I'm so frustrated, and why I'm in search of any rumor I can find, trying to analyze them to figure out which have probability and which don't. Here is my most probable best case scenario. (Not actual best case scenario, but the best case that I can say has any probability, and that involves them averaging 5 weeks worth every month after CNY) LID's through May 12 before CNY. LID's through about June 16 by mid March. LID's through about July 21 by mid April LID's through end of August 25 by mid May LID's through September 29th by mid June So, even my most probable best case scenario isn't as optimistic as the two agencies who are saying April or May for the September people. Let's see what happens if we have them do 6 weeks worth of LID's a month after CNY. LID's through May 12 before CNY LID's through about June 23 by mid March. LID's through about August 4 by mid April LID's through about September 8 by mid May LID's through about October 13 by mid June That gets a little of September into May. Let's see what happens if they start doubling up on months - here is 8 weeks every four weeks LID's through May 12 before CNY LID's through about July 7 by mid March. LID's through about August 1 by mid April LID's through end of October 27 by mid May So, this one manages it - but how probable is it that they will start doubling up on months after CNY? I'm not sure it's all that probable. Possible, sure. Probable..... I really don't think so. I'd love to be proven wrong, though. I've been holding onto that May 12th date for before CNY because I have seen that date so many times, from so many different sources. But, obviously, if we add a week or two onto that, then September in May might be a bit easier to hit. Still, I just can't see it as being a probable scenario. Here is my most probable scenario, assuming the rumors back in the fall were correct that half months would continue until CNY and then they could go back to whole months. LID's through May 12 before CNY. LID's through about June 10 by mid March. LID's through about July 11 by mid April LID's through end of August 12 by mid May LID's through September 9 by mid June LID's through October 10th by mid July This assumes they just go back to the status quo and stop falling behind but don't do any catching up. I do feel that they will start catching up a little bit at some point, but I just don't know when that will be. It will be great if they jump right in and start picking away at the wait right after CNY, but it also might take them a while to get up enough speed to do that. So, my best scenario that I feel is probable is a referral for September in June/July. My worst scenario (that falls into the realm of probable) doesn't give September LID's a referral until October/November. I'm really trying to not think about that possibility, but since some agencies are warning the wait could go out as far as 14 months, I kind of have to have it in the back of my mind.