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Thursday, January 12, 2006

Analysis

The thing about analysis is that you have to feel pretty good about the facts you are basing your assumptions on. Take Minesweeper for instance, once you've marked a space as having a mine, if you aren't right about that, you'll eventually get blown up. It may not happen right away, you may go towards the left and be fine, but when you finally make your way around to the right side, you might get blown up for an assumption you made 40 seconds ago (which is an eternity in Minesweeper when your best time is less than a minute on the very hardest level). So, how do I analyze these latest rumors when the CCAA is currently not following their own patterns, and when all of the rumors don't seem to agree with each other. I will start with what they all seem to agree on. They all seem to agree that another batch is very close to being sent out and that it should arrive in the US sometime next week. The majority of them seem to think that at least some of May will be included, and many of them seem to focus on a date around the 10th or 12th. It's really hard to go much farther than that. The last three referral dates have been: 11/10 (5 weeks since previous referrals) 12/08 (4 weeks since previous referrals) 1/5 (4 weeks since previous referrals) If we have them arrive next week, they will be coming 2 weeks since the previous referrals. And if they cover through May 10, that will be 15 days worth of dossiers. That puts them back to "one month per month", albeit in a two week increment. That's probably the best news I've heard in a long time. If it is true.

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