Several items
- A Canadian agency has told someone with an early July LID that they will probably see their referral at the end of September.
- One of the big agencies is now telling their people 10 to 14 months from LID to referral.
- Someone with a June 2nd LID was called by her agency and told she has been matched and referrals will be sent in the next day ortwo.
posted by RumorQueen at 4/24/2006 08:42:00 PM
30 Comments:
Surely rumor #1 can't be true. I can't imagine them taking 6 months to get through June. No way. I don't believe this one.
Ashley LID 6/28
Our agency just called and said we *will* get our referral this year! Our LID is the end of August. So I'm thinking we'll get our referral in December??? Not feeling too good about that news.
Unfortunately, the Canadian agency's estimate matches my best guess. I think things will eventually speed up, but not right away. :-(
If they do take 5 months to get through June. Then they would be almost at an 18 month referral time. And would have to do full months to keep it under 2 years.
We have an 11/8 login date. When we started the wait was 6 months solid, so we timed our paperwork for summer travel, easiest on the kids and the family members staying with them. Also better for me who much prefers extreme heat to extreme cold. Now with a 10-14 month wait, we will be traveling almost for sure in pretty extreme cold. If the wait goes to 18 month I'll just have to look on the bright side and maybe I'll get that warm weather travel after all! What else can we do but try to find the bright side?? Call me pollyanna, but that's all I can do at this point!
My God, with a Dec LID, I am completely and totally screwed. I knew it.
So with a June 29 LID does that mean aside from our fingerprints expiring that we will now have to re-file for our 171 and 600 forms too??? No way.... I can't believe it would take that long plus there are fewer (I thought) LIDs in June....
Lisa 6/29
Our Canadian agency said to expect a 16 month wait to referral. Not what we wanted to hear.
Rumor #1 has me hyperventilating...surely you mean TRAVEL by the end of September. Please clarify, anyone who has related info. That one statement just turned my "end is in sight" mentality to "there's just no end to this."
LID 6/29/05
My very conservative agency just told me "it would not be unrealistic to expect a wait of 12-16 months or more" (our LID was 2/24/06). It is the "or more" that bugs me! Personally, I am gearing up for a 2+ year wait and will be pleasantly surprised if we go sooner.
I'm still sticking with the 12 month rumor. The director from the CCAA said it so then it MUST be true!
As I've said before, I am personally gearing up for 12 to 14 months. I'm just reporting the other stuff that is out there, and keeping it in my mind that it could be longer. I'm hoping that my source as well as the Director's info of 12 months is correct. But, I'm also not telling friends and family a date based on it being no more than 12 months.
Also, I'm not making any more guesses or estimates until we know for sure the cut-off for this next batch.
Our agency sends out weekly updates and for the past 2 weeks have said June will take 2 months to get through. Maybe they mean after this month's batch has been sent it will take 2 months to get through the rest?
I don't believe July will be matched in one go. Plus August, October and November are big months so I can see the waiting time going up a lot further by the end of this year.
If patience is a virtue then I am turning into a real skank! 2/06 LID
My agency says "the current wait is" Real news isn't it? I'm so sick of this - it's expected to be 12 months - hope. That's impossible. We all know they'll only get through the first few days of June, and every other month of 2005 is "huge" or so it's reported. Let's face it - you're supposed to get discouraged and opt out of the program; it's by design.
How do we know that the numbers of dossiers are huge? October appears large because of the September problems. March is large because the CCAA logged-in dossiers more quickly. Otherwise, what evidence do we have that the number of dossiers has sky-rocketed?
I talked to our agency and they said that they "are being told that they should expect through June 5th" to be matched in this next round. Again, that is what "they are being told" ... thought I would share.
As much as I hate to say it, the first rumor might be true. It took 2 months to get through March, 3 months to get through April and 4 months to get through May. People keep saying "Next month we'll have a better idea." China has been showing us all along. We just don't want to believe it.
My small agency with big connections in China believes it won't go over 12 months. Let's put it this way one of our coordinators translated for the Director last year in Denver.
unfortunately i fear that anon 10:01 is right. its all there, we are just not choosing to believe it.
if our worst fears are proven out, and china wants the wait to get so long that we will all go elsewhere, then i will never ever forget the story of ccaa Director Hu ( or whatever his name is) lying to that 12/05 LId father, telling him to expect a referral in 11 to 13 months.
of course, there's still hope that his predeiction will be true, but if its not, and things get really bad, that story will stick in my head forever. ( i have an early spring lid so ( unfortunately) i will still be around to know what happens to 12/05 LIDs)
there hasn't been good news since I became LID in 3/06.
How miserable to have been soo close to seeing this happen and being able to switch before we invested soo much time and money.
the worst part is the thought of china just shutting its doors. I know everyone keeps saying it won't happen but what is it when they do 5 days of referrals a month? That is an open program? that seems like a program barely hanging on by a thread. (no pun intended.)
I am bitter too....
i always figured they'd want their program shut down before the beijing olympics, like in the fall/winter of 07 ( either temporarily, for a year or so, or for good) but now i am thinking whats happening now is leading up to that. i didnt expect them to start so early. but really, how can we come to any other conclusion if they do 5 days again. do they think we aren't noticing?
I can't recall the specifics but I remember mention of a Spain agency sending an open letter to the CCAA requesting info about the expected waits. Does anyone know if a reply was ever sent to that letter?
I think rumour #1 just shows us that the agencies have no better idea than the rest of us about what is happening. We all assume the agencies have a source of information, but they're probably just guessing like the rest of us. They might have a bit more data to base things on from the past, but I'm pretty sure now that they don't have the "reliable" inside information we always thought they had.
Plus, like others have said, I think we have to accept that every month is a "big" month for applications.
Having said that - I'm LID 15 July, so I really hope I'm not waiting too much longer! I still choose to believe that things will improve and referrals will start to cover more days. I don't think we'll get back to full months in a hurry, but CCAA will work towards it.
If Spain got a response they haven't posted it.
I don't think you're being offensive but I do think you're wrong in the thought that China doesn't "owe" us anything. Where does this thought come from? We entered this process in good faith, we signed a legal contract with China accredited agencies and at what point in this legal process does the idea they don't owe us an explaination occur?
Look I'm not saying they're not doing their best but obviously there is a directive here that's not being shared. Bare minimum they owe us civility. If we're wasting our time, they they should damn well tell us.
I can only speak for myself but this has been a truly miserable experience.
I do not think that China owes me a baby or owes it to me to relay timely and accurate information, however that does not mean the compassion does not dictate otherwise.
I do not understand the argument that "they do not have to" as to why it is creul that they do not.
I do nice things because it is the right thing to do, not because I have to, or because I owe someone courtesy.
Stephanie, the one point I disagree with you on is that our contract is only with the agency, not with China. I think the agencies owes us full disclosure, but they seem to liken themselves to the CCAA and feel it is best to operate on a "guess the answer" basis.
I also do not mean to offend Stephanie because I think Stephanie makes very good points.
Although it is not pretty to talk about, IA does involve alot of money. I do not think it is wrong to have certain expectations when you pay for a service.
The problem, I think, is that the CCAA is not telling the agencies anymore than they tell us. I fully admit there are high risks in any IA but I think it's become clear that even the agencies are taken aback by what's happening. I've been waiting the last 6 months to find out if this will be the month only to see referral numbers decline and I'm not talking about dates, I'm talking about the actual referral numbers. None of which can be explained. During other long periods there was information, expected dates of referral and now? Now I don't think anyone knows.
And you're right; our contracts are with the agencies. Agencies that must be accredited with China, therefore it would seem to me that some agreement is reached between the Country and the Agency. If China isn't telling the agencies what's going on, then we would appear to all be false customers.
And as unrealistic and immature as it may seem, I went into this program expecting a child at the end but I don't know anymore, will I get a child?
And I know I sound incredibly nasty and pissy and I apologize. It's just I'm coming up on 11 months and I just don't see an end in sight. Every month it slips a little more and instead of seeing my daughter moving closer to me I see her moving away. I'm scared and I'm angry and I'm sad.
And no, I will not remember this time fondly. But I will tell my daughter how her mommy thought she was going to lose her mind waiting for her. That every day all I thought about was her and bringing her home. I will tell her I was miserable without her.
someone on our DTC board said Holt has posted the wait could be 18 months...
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