The Promised Analysis

Just so we are clear on dates, here is a calendar of May and June of last year. Also, here is a recap of the past four months 4/26 - 5/13 arrived Jan 25 (11 business days) 5/14 - 5/25 arrived Feb 27th (11 business days) 5/26 - 5/30 arrived March 27th (3 business days) 5/31 - 6/6 will arrive April 27th (4 business days) Now to look at poll numbers. I'm going to analyze the two most meaningful polls on their own merits, and then combine my analysis of each poll into one hypothesis.

Let's do this one first.

Since we don't know how big the 7th might be in relation to the 3rd and 6th, we'll borrow that information from the June database. The 7th is equal to about 18.5% of those three days so we'll assume that 7 of those 40 days are the 7th. So for the purposes of this poll, we'll assume they did 94 days in one month. Should they do the same amount of dossiers next month, that will put them through June 21st with the next batch (end of May) and then when they hit July 11th they will have done about half of what they can do in a month, so they'd (theoretically) get a good bit farther. ----------- On to the next poll. 5/26 - 6/3..109..25% 6/4 - 6/12...38...9% 6/13 - 6/21..53..12% 6/22 - 6/30..55..13% 7/1 - 7/14...35...8% 7/15 - 7/31..70..16% 8/1 - 8/14...11...2% 8/15 - 8/31..27...6% 9/1 - 9/14...23...5% 9/15 - 9/30..16...4% The numbers from the June DTC group show 5-26 to 5-30 as 75, and 5/31 - 6/3 as 200. That splits that 109 number into 5/26-5/31..30 5/31-6/3...79 If I do the same thing to the 38 then I get: 6/4-6/6...10 6/7-6/12..28 So, I will restate this poll as: 5/26-5/30..30...7% 5/31-6/3...79..18% 6/4-6/6....10...2% 6/7-6/12...28...6% 6/13-6/21..53..12% 6/22-6/30..55..13% 7/1-7/14...35...8% 7/15-7/31..70..16% 8/1-8/14...11...3% 8/15-8/31..27...6% 9/1-9/14...23...5% 9/15-9/30..16...4% This immediately shows us that they appear to have done a lot more referrals (number of referrals) this month than last month. If we figure how many they did this month at 89, then that means the end of May referrals will be through 6/21, the next would be through 7/14 and the next through a couple of days past 8/14, and the next would get beyond 9/30. Except that when you get that far out the poll has become less scientific, so we'll just figure those last two at a month at a time, for this poll. ---------- And now I'm going to do the same thing based on the June numbers as well. Last months referrals would have been 75. This months will be 233. A glaring difference. Did the meeting with the orphanage directors get more paperwork rolling in? If they continue to do the same number of referrals in the coming months then: End of May... thru June 20th End of June... thru July 8th ------- That's three different scenarios. I will put them all together into one hypothesis in the next post. This has been a lot of math. I'm not claiming to have not made any errors. If anyone wants to check my math it won't hurt my feelings at all if you point out an error.