A Good Rumor and a Bad Rumor
The bad first:
Someone on the Feb LID yahoo site posted that they were told by the Swedish agency that they use that CCAA just informed them, and another Swedish agency, that the referral wait will soon be 18 months.And then the good, which appears to be a backup to the single source rumor below:
Someone who is LID in June was told two weeks ago that they should expect a referral in two weeks...that means now or soon. So, they are expecting another batch to come in the next few days.
posted by RumorQueen at 3/11/2006 06:40:00 PM
20 Comments:
That first rumor is utterly bone-chilling. thanks for posting it tho, you really do a service to all us us by keeping track of this stuff, good and bad...
Liz, lid 2/17
That's what I was thinking, Liz. That first rumour is sickening. I wish the CCAA would come clean with the reasons for what they are doing.
I am on the June board and I heard from my agency on Thursday that I should expect my referral in the next couple of weeks. To me that means around the last week of March.
Here's the thing. Things have to either:
1. Continue to slow down
2. Stay at the same as now
3. Speed back up
One of those will happen. More than one cannot happen. True, they can speed up for one month and then slow back down... but over the long run, only one of these can happen.
And yet we have rumors saying they are about to speed up at the same time we have rumors saying they are going to continue to slow down. Both cannot be true.
Unfortunately, for the past six months the true rumors have all been the really bad ones. So, I'm afraid to say "no, that can't be possible", because back in the fall when the rumor came out that they would continue with half months until CNY I said "no way can that happen".
I guess what could happen, in order for both rumors to be true, and you sortof touched on this, is that 1) there is be a big april/may 05 lid bubble -- which we hope is ending now -- and things will speed up for the next couple of months and 2)the ccaa knows something we dont know, like that there is a HUGE pile of, say, NOvember and december '05 dossiers. So they foresee another peroid, like the last 6 months, when it took them 6 months to do 2 LID months.
I still hope with all my heart that the swedish rumor isn't true, or that the ccaa can figure out some way to navigate the next bubble better than they navigated this last one...
I'm writing from Sweden and on friday 10th march we all received a letter from our agency who had recently come home from China stating that the waiting are now between 16-18 months.
Is this 18 months from LID to travel, or 18 months from LID to referral. 18 months from LID to referral seems like an awfully long time, I really can't imagine the CCAA slowing down this much, but who knows. I hope this rumor is absolutely wrong.
PS - love your website!!
Oh, ugh.
They're usually talking LID to travel. They don't really know or care about dtc dates, only LID, and they also don't control travel (except inasmuch as they have to issue TAs)....but they don't control the consular/embassy appointments for the 16 different countries, so that generally doesn't affect their thinking.
Oh ugh. This is pretty much my worst-case analysis/fear. We're LID in early January, which, if they continue to split every month, would put our referral pretty much at 18 mos. post-LID.
No fun.
Anon2
Ugh is right.
I know i am grasping at straws here, but is it possible that the swedish agency meant 18 months for THE WHOLE PROCESS which is actually true, i.e. 6 month paperchase, then 12 months to travel.
Grasping, I know. But as a side note, assuming that this is true, shouldnt' we all be questioning our agencies about this? I know my agency ( ccai) is still quoting the old 10 month wait timeline. If things have changed this much, shouldnt the US agencies admit it?
Do you know what the date was for the June LID that is expecting a referral in a couple of weeks?
Elaine
I am so happy to have found this site. Good or bad it is helpful to read what rumours are out there and to be able to follow-up with the comments. This long wait would be extremely difficult it it was a silent wait. We are grateful for all the blogs and the websites.
All I have to say about rumor #1 is "NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO"
I'm writing from Sweden and the agency say in a letter. The waiting time for the group is now 13 months (between DTC and you will be home from China with your children) and it could be longer time( 16-18 months)
Does anyone know the LID groups this slow down will impact? I'm wondering if that's for all new people applying or people with LID dates later than November 05 or how this will work?
It just seems odd that the LID groups are now going through the review and matching process so quickly only to be slowing down so dramatically again.
Thanks
The '13 month wait' referred to in the swedish report is actually no different than what we have all been told. according to the swedish poster, the letter mentions that its 13 months from dtc to arrival home, so, since its usually 1 month from dtc to lid, and you add 2 months for TA/travel, you get about 10 months (LID to referal) which is exactly what the wait is now. nothing new there.
As for a possible 16-18 month wait in the future, we all know this could happen, heck it could be 24 months at some point for all we know. but i'd have to hear it from several more agencies, my agency, or on the ccaa website, to really wrap my mind around that one...For the wait to increase THAT much, our agencies and the ccaa would HAVE to report it, and for now they are all still saying 10-12 months, LID to referral.
Absolutely no offense meant to the swedish poster, as i am sure she is reporting what her agency said completely accurately.
Liz, LID 2/17 -- i.e. i am screwed if this is true
I like the rumor that another round of referrals should be coming any day, but I am not so sure. I would think in two weeks.
It seems Holt is now saying referrals maybe will cover 1 week again?????
I am glad someone posted a clarification regarding the possible 16-18 month wait. It's still a long time, but the fact that includes DTC to travel makes it a little easier to swallow - but not much.
One week, oh gosh I hope NOT!
I wonder if it is true that certain countries have better relationships with China and the CCAA vs. other countries??? Maybe that is why certain countries have different ideas on the wait time? Kinda makes you wonder doesn't it?
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