LID Poll is up
The poll is up.
Something to keep in mind: People who are closer to referral are more likely to be stalking for rumors right now, so don't be surprised if the poll shows a lot more people close than it shows farther out. This is not a scientific poll. We might be able to make it a bit more scientific if we ask people on the various DTC lists or even the big list to come vote in it, but even then it's based on people who are online and actively reading, so it's still not really scientific. But, it's the best we can do, and if we can get 400+ people to submit their info then I'll feel pretty good about it.
One more thought: If it's posted on one DTC group it needs to be posted on all of the months that are in the poll... else that in itself can throw the numbers off.
posted by RumorQueen at 3/10/2006 02:52:00 PM
10 Comments:
What about those of us even farther out???
Thank you for doing the polls. I am next for my agency and I am very interested in all of this information.
Pam - Sorry, the poll only gives me 10 slots. I spaced June out because if they split the month then it will be nice to know what weeks are bigger or smaller.. and then from there I split each month into 2's, so it only made it out to the end of September.
This may be a stupid question, but do we have any idea what is the average # of dossiers per LID month? When we were all hearing how HUGE the May LID group was, I remember hearing 800 dossiers for the month of May. So maybe a more average number is 600-ish?
When i first heard how huge April, and particularly May, were ( because of the december '05 Oprah show supposedly) I remember thinking: that cannot be true. And here we are 3 months later and clearly it was true.
Here's hoping June, July etc, do not have 800 dossiers...
Liz LID 2/17
Thanks for doing this! I'm not up until August...but it's things like this (unscientific as they may be) that make the wait a bit easier...at least I have something to focus on vs hearing nothing!!!
I don't know what a normal month might look like. The CCAA has a policy of not giving out specific numbers, so I'm not sure where those numbers would have come from.
What I'm hoping to do with this poll is see if there are months that are a lot bigger than other months. I expect the closer months to be a bit bigger than the ones farther away, so it's still going to be a bit of a guessing game, but it's all we have right now.
It is usually quoted that there are 10,000 international adoptions from China each year - if this is true and CCAA refers roughly equal numbers each time it does allocations then that is an average of 833 babies referred each month worldwide. So I would guess that a large month of LIDs would be greater than 800 dossiers submitted from worldwide.
Anonymous,
I'm not sure where you're getting your numbers. I've seen it widely reported, repeatedly and recently, by the U.S. Dept. of State, that nearly 8,000 visas were issued for Americans alone in 2005. I'll be happy to provide references on that one.
I've also "heard" it stated that the U.S. accounts for approximately 1/2 of China's international adoptions. That would make sense, considering there are approximately (but don't quote me on this one) 14 or so Western nations with which China participates in IA. This I read on the CCAA website, I think. Off the top of my head, that sounds about right...Spain, France, Denmark, Britain, Ireland, Finland, New Zealand, Australia, Canada, U.S....I'm sure I'm forgetting a few...
So that would be more like 16k kids getting processed, or 1,030 or so per month in an average month. A lot of work to do, any way you look at it.
Add to that the fact that Russia, another HUGE source for internationally adopted children, ground to a virtual HALT last year during the early spring through summer months, and you'd naturally have a lot of people, worldwide, turning to China. I'm a little skeptical of the "Oprah-made-it-happen" theory, because I doubt anyone watches a television show and then decides to adopt. It's a lot easiesr to just join her book club. Nice theory, but it also happens to coincide with the exact time frame in which people gave up on Russia.
All that being said, all we can do is wait and see. The Chinese aren't ever gonna tip their hands about how many families are waiting, how many children are waiting, or how many they process every month. They don't have to, so why should they?
Happy waiting,
Anon2
Thanks for the info, Anonymous, great info, actually, I didn't know alot of that stuff.
Though, maybe its just me, but "happy waiting" seems like an oxymoron!
--Liz, Lid 2/17 ( maybe that explains it!)
Oops...
just reread that...my arithmetic was glaringly, gaspingly, what-was-I-thinkingly off. Make that 1330 dossiers processed in a single month....
Anon2
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